Saskatchewan Violates Salary Cap, the Sequel

So yet again, the Roughriders have violated the CFL's salary management system, by $76,552. Fortunately that is below the $100,000 violation that loses draft picks. Saskatchewan claims injuries as they did, if I recall correctly, last year. Admittedly on a percentage basis, this is pretty small potatoes. I do wonder though, if you're an owner that wants to win, why not just violate the cap by $99,999 every year. Sure you would have to shell out an extra $99,999, but you would lose no draft picks. However the $99,999 probably isn't enough to make a winning team out of a losing team. Certainly I think the Cats wouldn't have done much better last year with an extra $99,999 spent.

Amusingly, Eric Tillman, the archtect of the Riders can't comment on this issue due to certain allegations that are still pending before the courts. I once met Eric's sister in an elevator in the Rio in Las Vegas. Same hick accent as Eric, but no crazy red hair.

Grey Cup 2009 Odds

I wrote a blog post about preseason Grey Cup predictions last year, so it is probably good to look at the predictions for this year.

On some South African betting site, I found the following odds for 2009:

Calgary 2/1
BC 7/2
Montreal 9/2
Edmonton 13/2
Saskatchewan 8/1
Toronto 9/1
Winnipeg 14/1
Hamilton 16/1

There's others floating around on the internet with Hamilton a lot higher.
I think that Winnipeg, Toronto and Saskatchewan may well be worse than
Hamilton this year, but if I were an odds maker this doesn't seem too off.
Calgary at 2/1 seems a bit too high to me; too much can go wrong, especially
in the conference finals. BC seems a bit high as well, but there seems to be
an assumption that whoever represents the West in the Grey Cup will almost
automatically win the Grey Cup.

In the post I made last year, the odds were:

Toronto 5/2
BC 3/1
Winnipeg 5/1
Calgary 6/1
Saskatchewan 7/1
Edmonton 10/1
Hamilton 12/1
Montreal 15/1

Well, admittedly Montreal didn't take the cup, but they certainly ended
up being better than dead last. Obviously people were delusional about
Toronto before the start of the 2008 season. No doubt looking back next
year on the odds for 2009 there will be a few teams that surprise.

Kenton Keith

Kenton Keith arrived in Hamilton last year after a bidding war with some fanfare, but was mostly an afterthought because the Ticats season was already pretty much done. He was also injured for several games last season, with only 58 rushes for 204 yards and an anemic 3.5 average in yards per carry. He had 18 receptions for 148 yards.

In 2007, he rushed 121 times for 533 yards and three TDs for the Indianapolis Colts, along with 13 receptions for 77 yards and a TD. Not bad stats, although you wonder why he couldn't have done more with Hamilton last year. Then again, the Cats were 3 and 15 last year with a mediocre offensive line.

Keith has had some good years prior to the NFL with Saskatchewan. The 2004 and 2006 seasons were particularly good: in 2004 he rushed 190 times for 1,154 yards and nine TDs, along with 29 receptions for 295 yards and two TDs. In 2006, he rushed 167 times for 1037 yards and two TDs, and caught 52 receptions for 513 yards and three TDs.

So Keith had decent season in 2004, 2006 and 2007, however the question remains how much he has left in the tank. Keith's ability to catch as well as rush probably puts him ahead of Terry Caulley as the starting RB, but his high salary doesn't seem warranted from last year's performance. A better Ticat offensive line (Rottier?) this year combined with some good performances from Keith hopefully will boost Hamilton's offense from sixth in the CFL (yes Toronto and Winnipeg scored even less points than Hamilton) to maybe third or fourth.

The CFL, the Ultimate Home Field Advantage League

So in the last post, I looked at home field advantage in the CFL for 2008. Interestingly, home field advantage looks quite strong in the CFL. Using the league standings at the CFL site, the home wins versus losses for 2007 was 42 and 28 (60.0%), 43 and 29 (59.7) for 2006 and an astounding 50 and 31 (61.7%) for 2005 (the last year Ottawa was still in the league).

For the past four seasons, with 178 wins and 117 losses (ties tossed) the total winning percentage was 60. 3%. Poking around the web for info on other professional leagues in North America, I found a site that had compiled similar stats. The site reported home winning percentages for the NFL of 56.5%, the NBA of 59.8 %, MLB 54.8 %, and the NHL 55.4%. So in the CFL, there is a stronger home season advantage than even the NBA. Why is that? One guess would be that the average distance travelled per away game is likely the largest in the CFL, likely by a fairly large margin, which probably affects the away team's performance. Apart from that, I'm not really sure. Perhaps the stadiums are different enough in weather or individual field idiosyncracies to have an effect (Ivor Wynne's swirling winds). I wonder if the Cats' proposed stadium near the waterfront will have as large a home field advantage (surprisingly they do have one over the past four years) as Ivor Wynne.

Wins versus Losses Update

OK, so apparently the CFL site has the standings with home and away wins and losses, but sadly only for 2005 on. However it turns out that the 2005 edition of the Cats that went 5 and 13 won all their games at home that year meaning they had a winning season at home. I thought that might have been the last season where the Cats lost all their away games, but no, the Cats won all three of their games at home in 2007. Hasn't really been a great couple of years for Ticat fans.

Wins versus Losses

Since it is a bit slow in Ticatland, apart from whether Kevin Glenn signs or not, I thought I would look into some win loss statistics for the Cats over the years. One question I wondered was when did the Cats last have a winning record at home?

Via Wikipedia I was easily able to find the overall win loss records for the individual CFL seasons, but unfortunately there was no breakdown for home versus away games. Obviously last year going 3 and 15, there was no winning record at home, nor the 3 and 15 season in 2007 or the 4 and 14 season in 2006. In 2005 the record was 5 and 13, so if they won all five games at home it is possible they had a winning record, but I would guess they won at least one away game. Which brings us to the 9 win, 8 loss and 1 tie season of 2004 (what great memories!). I remember the tie was at home against the Argos for Labour Day, but I don't know the breakdown for the other games. I would guess they probably had a winning record at home. Which brings up another question, when did the Cats last have a winning season on the road? If anyone knows where this info is available on the web, I'd appreciate a pointer.

Now on the TSN site, they have the won loss records for last year. Interestingly, for last season, the home teams won 43 of the games and lost 29, for a 59.7 winning percentage which is fairly sizeable. The Cats of course did their part going 1 and 8 on the road. Six teams had winning home records and three teams had winning road records. Probably no chance of a winning road record for the Cats this coming season, but one can always dream.

Kevin Glenn and JoJo!

So the Cats have extended a contract to Kevin Glenn. I'm not completely sold on Glenn coming aboard, as I have stated in the past. I'm not convinced that he would be that much better as a backup QB than Richie Williams, but then again it appears the Ticat brain trust, such as it is, has soured on Williams. In Glenn's favour, he's only 29, which is not particularly crotchety for a QB in the CFL. Plus when he has to step in, and you know he will, he won't have that deer in the headlights aspect that rookies have. Who knows, maybe we will end up with a QB controversy. Although if the Bombers tossed Glenn aside for Stefan LeFors, it does make one wonder.

One unrelated note. Will Tigercatatonia and Charlie Taaffe favourite, JoJo Walker return to the Cats this year? I've haven't been bothered to investigate, but I'm hoping so.

High Paying, CFL, Same Sentence

From KNDO:

Former Fever Player Johnny Jackson lands CFL Contract

KENNEWICK, Wash. - Former Fever defensive end Johnny Jackson has gone from the AF2, to the AFL, to no team, to the high-paying CFL. Jackson signed with the Montreal Alouettes Thursday, ending a five month-long roller coaster ride. The deal is for three years and averages $81,000 plus incentives. AF2 players (such as those on the Fever) make just $200 a game.
Jackson had an AFL contract in place, but then that league shut down operations for the 2009 season. He was considering rejoining the Tri-Cities Fever and even appeared at recent practices. His prayers were answered when the CFL team came calling Thursday.
Jackson, the Fevers all-time sack leader, said the deal moved him to tears.

I'll have to watch out for the Fever's all-time sack leader. I'm betting first week training camp cut, but good luck all the same Johnny.

Nautyn McKay-Loescher

So former Ticat non-import DE Nautyn McKay-Loescher signed with his former team, the BC Lions. Last year for the Cats, he had a mediocre and injury plagued year (mostly back problems if I recall) with 13 tackles and 2 sacks. The previous year for the Cats, he was significantly better statwise with 17 tackles and 11 sacks (hmmm the year of Denny Creehan is terrible). Sadly the Americans the Cats used for DE last year also sucked. That seems to be a continuing Cat theme, namely underperforming imports, Tony Miles I'm looking at you, but I digress.

I thought I read the terms were $240,000 over the course of two years plus an option, so I assume $80,000 per. Since he is an non-import who has had an 11 sack year in recent history, that's not surprising. Although with DE Cameron Wake leaving for a big signing bonus pile of gold in the NFL this year, one wonders if the Lions will start two non-imports at the ends, Johnson and McKay-Loescher, or is the latter just a backup for the former. The Cats this year seem commited to no more than one non-import on the D-line. Hopefully this will work out better than the unit that was dead last in the league with 26 sacks in 2008.

In other news, on cfl.ca, it has been reported that the BC Lions resigned former Cat WR O'Neil Wilson. Last year for the Cats, Wilson managed to get wide open numerous times and then fluff an easy catch repeatly before being run out of town. One wonders whether there wasn't a single better non-import WR BC could have signed instead than the excreable Wilson. I'll be watching his stats this year.

Also I'm restarting my quixotic quest to have TSN start broadcasting CFL preseason games. I'm not saying all of them, however I think two games between teams that were a good TV draw last year would make sense. With a bit of hype, you would probably get 200,000 viewers at least, as curious hardcore fans would tune in, plus before the season starts, hope springs eternal as everyone in theory has a chance, unlike the Cats after five games.

Kevin Glenn

No. I'd prefer the Cats not sign now available QB Kevin Glenn. Hell if Winnipeg doesn't want him, why do we (and who is Winnipeg going with at QB anyways)? Frankly, Glenn always struck me as consistent, but mediocre. Never seemed to have a fabulous game, even against the lowly Cats the past few years, but also never played horribly. I don't think he would show much on a likely bad Ticat team this year. I question signing him as a backup either. Frankly I have more confidence in Richie Williams, even if Cat management doesn't.

Dline Stuff

According to Spec beat writer Drew Edwards, non-import DT Corey Mace is interested in coming to Hamilton, if he doesn't get picked up somewhere in NFL after being released by Buffalo.

He also reports Brandon Guillory, a DE last year with Edmonton should sign with Cats. Guillory had six sacks in 13 games or 8.3 sacks over a full eighteen games. Not too shabby and combined with Darrell Adams' eight sacks for the Cats last year (excellent for a defensive tackle, although maybe a few last year would have gone to the ends if we had someone with talent) maybe the Cats line can go from being last in the league to fifth or sixth.

CFL Combine

The CFL combine for the top 50 potential draft picks is taking place this week at the Rogers centre. Now last year, The Cats had the first pick as well as the eighth pick due to Montreal's salary cap shenanigans. They didn't work out so well. Dylan Barker broke a bone in a preseason game and never played a down in the regular season. The eighth pick, Sam Giguere from Laval is still hanging around the Indianapolis Colts roster.

This year, the Cats have the first, third and ninth picks. The third pick comes from Winnipeg, via the Moreno deal (who's not even on Winnipeg anymore). Apparently this is a crappy draft year, which is unfortunate for the Cats. A favourite to go number one is olineman Simeon Rottier from Alberta. He's got the added benefit of being from a Canadian university, so he's less likely to head stateside. I would assume the Cats would also want someone to play on the defensive line, plus a receiver. Hopefully the Cat draft picks will work out better than last year.

Also Buck Pierce apparently signed an extension for two years in a deal worth $930,000. That's a lot for someone as injury prone as him. I'd be interested to know what Quinton Porter gets paid this year. With Casey Printers getting the boot, that clears up a lot of salary for the Cats this year. Hopefully that will show up on the field this year.

Scratching Post

The new Ticat beat writer for the Spec, Drew Edwards, has a blog similar to former beat writer's Ken Peters. It is now included amongst the links. Seems to be of high quality, with a lot of links to articles from across the nation, including one on Jesse Lumsden trying out for our bobsled team, wtf?

Edwards seems a bit more formal than Peters, who I will miss. Peters apparently spent five years on the Ticats beat. That's a pretty crappy five year period in terms of win loss.

Also there's been some rule changes, based partly on the fans' suggestions in the CFL, including kickoffs after safeties from the 20 rather than the 35 and kickoffs after all field goals. Not bad. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing the point after eliminated, with only the option for the two point convert. A bit drastic, but probably more exciting.

USL Team for Hamilton

In connection with the hoopla over the potential new Pan Am games stadium near the waterfront, Bob Young announced that he would seek a United Soccer League franchise, one step down from the MSL (Toronto FC). Bob even said that it is possible the team could play in Ivor Wynne before the new stadium was ready.

Seems like a no-brainer. USL teams average 5000 fans per game, which seems doable for Hamilton, plus the Vancouver and Montreal teams play against Toronto FC each year for the Canadian representative to the North American Champions League. A home game against Toronto could sell out, meaning more money for a combined CFL/USL entity. Plus the marketing and ticketing could probably be handled by the existing Ticat infrastructure. It will be interesting to see if Hamilton gets a USL franchise before Ottawa gets a MSL franchise (proposed by Eugene Melnyk, the owner of the Ottawa Senators). My prediction is that Ottawa never gets a MSL franchise. Whether they get a CFL franchise is open to question. It seems that the denizens of Moncton are more keen.

In other news, Corey Mace, the DT draft pick that was part of the Zeke Moreno deal has been released by the Buffalo Bills after loitering around their roster for a couple of seasons. The best case is that he comes to training camp, rather than waiting around to get picked up by another NFL team. Certainly a good nonimport DT would improve the Cats immeasureably. We haven't really had a good one since Mike Philbrick.