2017 CFL Predictions Week 8

Edmonton at REDBLACKS
Sure the Eskimos are undefeated, but they are still pretty injured and the REDBLACKS are are home. Ottawa isn't that bad a team so the West will lose to the East. Maybe.
REDBLACKS 29 Eskimos 26

Toronto at Montreal
A Eastern conference marquee matchup! Ugh. Probably no Ricky Ray and the Alouettes are at home. Tabernac!
Alouettes 24 Argonauts 22

Winnipeg at Hamilton
Can Hamilton win a game? Can they win a game at home? Can they beat a Western team? If this were not at home I would say no, but why not. The Cats aren't bad enough to go winless. A lot of losses sure, but not winless.
Tiger-Cats 28 Blue Bombers 25

BC at Saskatchewan
BC is the better team including last week in Vancouver. The Riders are home and traditionally in the CFL it is hard for teams to win back to back games. So maybe the Riders get lucky.
Roughriders 33 Lions 25

Montreal Alouettes Release Troy Smith

Well that took forever. The Alouettes have finally released former NFL and Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith after basically sucking all year and being supplanted by Crompton as the Als quarterback.

Smith had a 52.6% completion percentage in 2013 and then an even lower Michael Bishop like number of 47.7% this year. I'm a little surprised that Smith was kept around for so long, considering he was probably getting a reasonable salary.

Smith seemed like one of those dubious CFL experiments where someone washed up in the NFL gets heralded upon arriving in the CFL. Like Chad Johnson. Who I also wonder about.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers Beat BC Lions 25 to 20, Buck Pierce Injured

I only tuned in with a little bit more than five minutes to go. Unsurprisingly Buck Pierce had already been knocked out of the game, but they didn't mention why the rest of the game. Backup Alex Brink looked good for the Bombers getting the winning TD late.

New Members of the CFL Hall of Fame

Five new members. Geezer Bomber punter Bob Cameron (although he is a local boy), rush crazy quarterback Tracy Ham of various teams, Rider receiver Don Narcisse, sackmaster Elfrid Payton who I will remember primarily as an Alouette and a former president of Football Canada, Joe Pistilli. Didn't notice if they announced whether the Hall of Fame game would be back in Hamilton this year or somewhere else like last year. Judging by the players Montreal might not be a bad location and be guaranteed a sellout, and I'm sure the Riders would do a decent job with Narcisse in there. No real Cat content again this year, but then again the 90's and the past decade were not a good Cat era.

Pigskin Pete, Earlier Incarnation

Pigskin Pete, Earlier Incarnation
Originally uploaded by philinator

Here's a picture of the previous Pigskin Pete that I snapped near my seat at the Halloween Saskatchewan game. Still capable of getting the crowd riled up. Also received an email from the Cats today as a season ticket holder. Forty percent off in the store in February for season ticket holders, plus they announced the "In the Trenches Seats,", available as a pair for $2250 each. They seem to be located at field level between the player benches. Nice, but I think the box seats are a better value.

Also the league apparently wants more rule change suggestions, specifically the overtime format. Pushing the teams back a bit initially might not be bad, but I'm OK with overtime format as it is, notwithstanding the loss in the playoff game to Casey Printers of all people.

After the First Quarter

Cats started off sucking, with almost no offense, but eventually put together a good drive, with hometown boy Dave Stala making three catches including a TD. Toronto running back Jamal Robertson has looked good.

The CFL, the Ultimate Home Field Advantage League

So in the last post, I looked at home field advantage in the CFL for 2008. Interestingly, home field advantage looks quite strong in the CFL. Using the league standings at the CFL site, the home wins versus losses for 2007 was 42 and 28 (60.0%), 43 and 29 (59.7) for 2006 and an astounding 50 and 31 (61.7%) for 2005 (the last year Ottawa was still in the league).

For the past four seasons, with 178 wins and 117 losses (ties tossed) the total winning percentage was 60. 3%. Poking around the web for info on other professional leagues in North America, I found a site that had compiled similar stats. The site reported home winning percentages for the NFL of 56.5%, the NBA of 59.8 %, MLB 54.8 %, and the NHL 55.4%. So in the CFL, there is a stronger home season advantage than even the NBA. Why is that? One guess would be that the average distance travelled per away game is likely the largest in the CFL, likely by a fairly large margin, which probably affects the away team's performance. Apart from that, I'm not really sure. Perhaps the stadiums are different enough in weather or individual field idiosyncracies to have an effect (Ivor Wynne's swirling winds). I wonder if the Cats' proposed stadium near the waterfront will have as large a home field advantage (surprisingly they do have one over the past four years) as Ivor Wynne.

Playoffs Round One

Ok, first week of the playoffs. For the Edmonton versus Winnipeg game, I'm picking Winnipeg. I don't really like Winnipeg, and I'm not a particularly big fan of Kevin Glenn, however Winnipeg has been relatively hot down the stretch going six and two over their last eight. Edmonton, not so much. Plus it is in Winnipeg which should give something of an advantage there. Ricky Ray, I somewhat like, however he always seems to pass for a lot of yards without winning a huge number of games. A weak running game is part of that, and will probably hurt them at zero degrees celsius today.

BC versus Saskatchewan. I'll pick BC. I like BC's defence. Their offense, well, it is a bit more hit and miss, and with Buck Pierce constantly getting injured, you never really know. Saskatchewan, I like their defence, their heart and their coaching. Their quarterbacks and their many injured players? Again not so much.

The BC Game

I'm on my way now to the game, so I don't have much of a chance to say anything too elaborate.

BC leads the league in interceptions and sacks, so one benefit for the Cats is that since they are run oriented team, BC's strength isn't such a problem.

The other factor is BC QB Buck Pierce. Probably the most injury prone player in the CFL today. I say blitz him and hope he sprains something silly early and then go after whoever is next.

Looking forward to seeing the new line in action.

Go Cats

Timmy, we hardly knew ye

So erstwhile Ticat saviour Timmy Chang has been released by the Cats. And then immediately picked up by Winnipeg. Having seen the Riders smothering Kevin Glenn in their victory over the Bombers, it is probably only a matter of time before the call starts to go out in the Winnipeg fan forums to give Timmy a chance. Good luck Timmy. For a Cat who never really did anything, I always hoped you and your superlative NCAA stats would do something.

In other news, perhaps a little more surprising, offensive tackle Marko Cavko was released (and totally too, no practice roster bullshit) before the Labour Day game. I guess we're going with Jonta Woodard and Charles Thomas at the tackle spots and I have no idea who is backing them up. No one really seems to know why Cavka got released. Seems odd considering how mediocre Woodard and Thomas are. I guess we will get the Cavka equivalent for this year when another tackle joins us after the NFL cuts are done, only to get cut half way through the season next year.

I watched a bit of the Riders game today and Bishop does what Bishop does: ride a good team defence to victory with less than a 60% completion rate. I really thought the Riders would bomb out the rest of the season with Crandell in charge along with all their injuries, however Riders GM Eric Tillman made a surprisingly good move. Don't look for Bishop to do much in the playoffs though. Hopefully the Riders will beat the Bombers next week in the Peg, giving the Cats a chance to break free from fourth place. Timmy!

Edmonton Eskimos Game, Battle of the Mediocre Football Teams

The Cats are at home versus the Esks with a chance to go 2 and 3. Both are coming off losses with Hamilton the 2 point underdog. So there is definitely a chance for the Cats to win and pick up their second win, in July no less and Edmonton is playing on a short week. Ah, the soft bigotry of low expectations.

Obviously the big story is Jesse Lumsden's return and how that goes. Edmonton's defence is one of the more mediocre thus far (although not as bad as Winnipeg). Edmonton has given up 6.3 yards per rush so far this year, so that bodes well for Lumsden. Hopefully the Cats won't go too crazy this game relying on Lumsden exclusively. Instead they should try to mix in some Smith and have Printers make the odd first down scamper. With Lumsden playing and the import Cavka likely at guard, will that make the O-line effective. Fred Perry, Edmonton's rush end was lost last week with a delightfully gruesome leg injury (which I witnessed at a bar in Pearson's international departures terminal while munching on some surprisingly tasty nachos), so maybe it is time for a dominant offensive performance with Printers having forever to throw and long runs ripped off effortlessly. I'm almost overconfident.

Oh wait, Miles is out with a bad hamstring and erstwhile Catatonia favourite JoJo Walker is apparently in for him (despite being recently released) at slotback. I'm hoping Bauman and Woodcock will have good games, because I don't have a lot of confidence in Hamilton's import receivers. Maybe Mitchell will prove me wrong and score the Ticats first TD through the air.
I'm picking Lumsden on a screen or shovel pass for that illustrious honour.

On defence, well, if the offense can avoid sucking with turnovers and 2 and outs in the first half, they probably won't do too bad. Edmonton has a pretty pass happy offense with some rushing, but the Cats haven't done a bad job stopping the rush this year (although the stats don't really show it). Having Ricky Ray as your QB means you are going to have a lot of passing yards in your game, however it doesn't necessarily mean you are going to win. Last year Ray passed for a ton of yards (which Jason Maass definitely did not do), but the Esks were only marginally better than Hamilton. I'm not exactly sure how that's possible, but I believe it has something to do with a porous defence and falling behind. Hopefully Moreno will have a big game for once this year and the rejigged line with McKay-Loescher not starting (and Clinton Wayne nonimport starting at tackle wtf?) will get at least some pressure. Maybe we'll blitz and not get burned too badly.

This is the first of the blacked out games, which is a grievous mistake in my opinion. What if Hamilton actually does well in this game? Who's going to see it? Interestingly the most watched game so far this year was Toronto at Edmonton on July 10th, with 475,000 viewers.

Unfortunately, I won't be at the game in my usual seat in section 7, but I will attempt to watch it on broadband here in Deutschland. Failing that it is CHML, followed by the replay tomorrow. Go Cats! May the other team have a run of stunning incompetence.

The Stampeders Game

After a bad loss, I have a hard time getting around to writing a blog post about the game. I justify waiting by thinking it better not to write an angry post right after the game, but to reflect on it for a day or two. Well last week in Calgary, we lost badly 43 to 16 so here is a blog post after a lot of reflection.

I can't seem to track down the liveplay site of the game on www.cfl.com so I'll just have to go by memory and the game stats. Obviously one thing that jumps out at you this game is the bad start with multiple stupid mistakes. Smith juggling the ball, Printers having problems with the ball. Bad starts like this have hampered the Cats in other games, and if we were going to have any chance to win this game, we had to have a good start. Sometimes I wonder, why can't other teams have a bad start against the Cats every once in a while. We still have four games against Winnipeg, this year so maybe it will happen.

Lumsden not being in this game obviously didn't help matters. He hopefully would have been more sure handed then Smith and could have gained a few first downs in the half and slow the game down. Lumsden being in also allows the use of the import Cavka at guard in place of Dyakowski. That obviously helps for the run game, but it probably helps for the pass game too. Sometimes I wonder if Lumsden would be as effective if Dyakowski was in for him. I wonder too about keeping Dyakowski in at guard with Lumsden and substituting Mariuz for an import linebacker. We just picked up Cornelius Anthony who played linebacker for Calgary last year for Defensive Coordinator Denny Creehan, although I don't know how much of an upgrade he would be over Mariuz (although he did have 8 sacks last year).

Offensively, Smith at RB didn't do much, going 32 yards on 9 carries with two fumbles. That's not getting it done, and not the way to impress when you get the start. Printers only ran for 4 times for 12 yards (with a TD) which I don't think is good enough. I like how Printers would rather try and find a guy downfield than run, however a few more runs when there isn't much there for a first down or 7 or 8 yards on first down would help in my opinion. The threat to run also alters the defence, so I would like to see Printers run it approximately 8 times a game (although to be fair, Burris only ran once for one yard and that worked out OK for him). Of course, being down almost the entire game can screw up the game plan. Printers was 17 for 26 for 209 yards, for a 65.4 % completion percentage. Two fumbles and two interceptions don't help. Mitchell and Miles weren't bad receiving, which they should be considering they are imports. Bauman and Woodcock didn't do much this game unfortunately.

Defensively, the Cats couldn't get any pressure on Burris and he picked them apart. The offense in the first half didn't help, with almost no sustained drives. The Cats defence is by no means great, but the only way they are going to do anything is if the offense can win the time of possession battle. Not really much to say here. Hopefully more pressure, maybe some turnovers, in the future, along with a sack or two and some two and outs.

Setta punted magnificently, albeit in some cases wind aided, and he kept the score respectable in the first half. Seems a waste of a great effort, but if everyone else is sucking, what can you do? Hopefully down the line, Setta will contribute to a few wins.

Not much else to say about that game. They probably don't win with Lumsden, unless he has a truly monster game, but it certainly would have been more respectable.

Today's Game

Well here we are with a decent chance to be 2 and 1, which considering the last few seasons is pretty cool. I wonder when we last had a winning record? I guess the first year of the Bob Young era when the Cats went 0.500. Certainly there is a decent chance, with Crandell out for Saskatchewan and Durant in with Jyles backing him up. I was a bit leary of Saskatechewan's chances starting the season with Crandell and the two new guys remind me a bit of the Todd Bankhead Billy the Skid era of bad Ticat backups. One never knows however.

I think the key for this game again will be avoiding two and outs early versus a tough Saskatchewan defence. If the Cats can establish Lumsden early and make some first downs, I think they will be ok. I do think it will be critical for Printers to occassionally run when the opportunity presents itself, picking up the easy first down or perhaps six or seven yards on first down. Get the offence in sync and on the field and keep Durant from getting any chance of getting hot. Same as last week I guess.

For the defence, throw some blitzes at Durant, and watch out for Wes Cates. Again prevent the Riders from converting 2nd and long, however with the inexperienced quarterback, that shouldn't be too hard.

I'm really hoping this goes according to plan, but lord knows I've been dissappointed before. One last thing, if the Cats do get ahead, they need to keep it going and absolutely crush the Riders and give them no chance at coming back. That's how good teams win a lot of games.

Last Week's Argo Game

Well it has been almost a week since the magical victory of the Cats over the Argos. I won't say that I was expecting it (considering the Cats were 10.5 point underdogs), but I did think that they had a slight chance (to beat the spread). Winning 32 - 13 sure wasn't what Vegas was expecting.

Before the game, on offence I said the Cats had to have a semblance of a running game, Printers has to have a similar completion percentage as last week, and Printers has to be able to run for some first downs. Considering the Cats ran for over 300 yards, Lumsden picking up 189 himself, obviously they had a running game. Tre Smith also picked up a lot of yards. I noticed that Printers was also able to run, including for two touchdowns. Whether the Cats will be able to do that against the defences of other teams is a question. Printers was 16 of 23 for 171 yards, for a 69.6% completion rate, which was in fact similar to last week. I guess starting three imports on the oline worked for the Cats, although I noticed they switched Peter Dyakowski in at guard when Lumsden went out. Lumsden was impressive not just on his long runs, but also when he was met at the line, he always seemed to grind out a couple of yards or sometimes even five or six. That's so important, as 2nd and 7 allows a lot more possibilities (including the QB legging it) than 2nd and 10. Someday I would like to make a chart of the percentages for making a first down for 2nd and X number of yards, but I'm guessing that would take a lot of effort.

On defence, I said how the Cats would do would depend on how the Argos QB did. Fortunately, Kerry Joseph didn't do a lot, especially in the first half. That might have a bit to do with new Argo receiver Bethel Johnson getting injured early (by his own player if I recall correctly). Johnson is another one of the former NFLers the Argos love so much and apparently really fast. Welcome to the CFL son! I also mentioned that the Cats had to stop 2nd and long (8 or more yards). I tried keeping track for both teams, but it was harder than I thought. However for the first half, the Argos didn't make a first down in any of those situations (the Cats themselves were rarely in 2nd and long situations). So obviously that's the key. Hard to tell how good the Cats defence is based on their last two outings. Moreno played ok from what I saw, but not fantastic.

Other bits, I noticed Jonta Woodard got an illegal formation call against him. Jonta seems to be good for at least one to two drive killing penalties per game. Is that worth giving up an additional sack for an inferior player? Hard calculation to make. Woodcock made at least four good grabs that I saw, often for first downs. Good pickup. Argos coach Stubler was wearing shorts, not really a good look, although I admit I prefer that to some dork on the sidelines with a suit on. Vanderjagt's placekicking was good, but his punting was mediocre. I'm guessing he will flipflop throughout the year.

Finally, as a suggestion for selling more tickets, the Argos and Cats should offer an option for their season ticket holders to receive tickets for the other team's home games against their teams (maybe even including the exhibition games). Just add on $20 or $30 per game onto the original season ticket price and call it the ultimate package or some other marketing jargon. Likely you will get a number of hardcore fans who might end up going that might not have. A bit of extra revenue for the tickets plus the concessions, plus the demand comes from those less likely in some ways to buy a ticket on the spur of the moment. One might as well take advantage of the teams being so close together.

Stench

Wow. What can you say about that game? I think the obvious TSN turning point was that early third down gamble where they gave the ball to Lumsden rather than sneak it with Printers. As I recall, it was within range of a gimme sneak, so a dumb call. Sure Lumsden could have gotten around the defenders crowding the box and ran for major yards, but at that point, just take the first down. I've heard Ron Lancaster say if you can't get a yard, you don't deserve to win and that was definitely the case here. It is a bit sad to say a play like this breaks the team, but it really changed the complexion of the game and cut down on the Cats chance to win.

Printers didn't have a great game, but he didn't have a terrible game either. He played hard and didn't appear to give up under pressure and made some first downs. Better than we've had there in the last couple of years, but it didn't seem to help much. The running game was pretty poor. I don't know if Montreal was ready for the run or what. Consequently, we had no play action at all from what I saw from my seat in section 5 and we need that if we are going to be successful.

Receiver wise, I saw a few small positive things. Woodcock made a few completions and frankly I was surprised to see him on the field as I thought the Cats were going with four American receivers. Maybe he was on with five receiver packages. Mitchell seemed to make a few plays in the middle, which was nice to see, but he bounced a ball off his knee early that was another TSN turning point. Hopefully over the next few games he'll be more consistent. Miles made no game breaking plays.

Jonta Woodward seemed to have a few penalties called against him. I know that tackle is now an American position, however I have a theory that American offensive linemen statistically take a lot more penalties, especially procedure. Just a theory, but you have to wonder how many points a bad procedure call is worth. Anyways, I'll be watching Woodward from now on.

On defence, as I said in my previous post, the Cats will lose if they can't stop 2nd and long. I know if your team has a terrible record, they probably are bad at 2nd and long, however the Cats the past few seasons have seemed to be especially poor at 2nd and long. 2nd and 10, 2nd and 3, it seems that it is equally likely for the other team to get the first down. That pattern seemed to continue today. A few 2nd and long stops early in the game and the outcome could have been completely different.

Linebacker play was also mediocre in my mind. The secondary was ok. Sure there were some completions, but considering the way the game went, they weren't terrible. The line sometimes got pressure, and there were a few sacks, however too many times a slowfooted Cavillo made a positive play when things looked bad.

Special teams were ok. Not much more to say.

I thought the Cats were a bit on the short end of the stick penalty wise, however considering the way they played you can't blame the refs.

Next week versus Toronto? Going into this game, I can't say I was too hopeful for a win and now I'm even more negative. Maybe the team can put it together and get a win. They need to be able to stop the 2nd and longs in the first half and get their offence back on the field and getting some chances. Maybe Toronto's inherent weakness against the run will work for us.

Forgot a prediction, BC to win tonight. They're losing now, so you can't say I changed my pick.

I liked the halftime show. What can I say, the tiger was cool.

No Jason Maass to blame this year. Sigh.