CFL 2012 Grey Cup Odds

Never to early to prognosticate on the possessor of Lord Grey's drinking vessel in November. The head coaches are set, assumed starting quarterbacks in place and a splash of arbitrariness and we have the odds.

1. BC Lions 20%

Sure they'll lose a few players for a while to the NFL and Wally Buono isn't the head coach any more, but Travis Lulay is the only reputable quarterback who isn't a relic.

2. Montreal Alouettes 17%

Anthony Calvillo is another year older, but in his last playoff game he certainly didn't look done. The Alouettes still have a lot of talented players on both offence and defence. Sooner or later Calvillo will hang up the cleats, but looks like he's back for one more year.

3. Winnipeg Blue Bombers 15%

Awesome defence and a gutsy quarterback in Buck Pierce. He could explode into a million little pieces at any time, so the Bombers can't really be ranked higher.

4. Hamilton Tiger-Cats 14%

An aging Henry Burris, plus Quinton Porter is actually fairly decent in terms of two quarterbacks in the CFL. Offence should still be good and maybe better scheme wise with offensive guru George Cortez running the ship. Questions remain about the defence, especially the secondary.

5. Edmonton Eskimos 11%

Can't really get that excited about a team going with Steven Jyles as their starting quarterback. If they can assemble an awesome team around him, sure they could do well, but I don't have that much confidence in the Eskimo's GM.

6. Calgary Stampeders 11%

Pretty much the same as for Edmonton, I'm not that excited about Drew Tate as a starting quarterback in 2012. I'm not going to say he's going to suck, but he hasn't really shown that much and 2012 may be a year for grooming him for better things.

7. Toronto Argonauts 7%

Having Ricky Ray as the quarterback will help. Not having any good receivers to throw to won't.

8. Saskatchewan Rough Riders 5%

This team was bad last year and while they will likely have a better record than last year's 5 and 13, I don't see them getting a sniff of the cup. Another rebuilding year.

2011 Grey Cup Prediction, Bombers at Lions

Well the game's about to start and I haven't got my prediction out so here it is. The Lions are favoured by seven at home (and with a real home field advantage). Certainly the Lions have been hot since they started 0 and 5 and have a very good offense and a good defence. The Bombers are obviously excellent on defence, an okay offense with excellent running.

Normally I would go with the Lions, but I've got a feeling that the Bombers will do better than people give them credit for. As long as Bomber quarterback Buck Pierce doesn't explode in the first quarter, I'll pick the Bombers in a close one.

Bombers 29, Lions 27

2011 Grey Cup Odds

Since Tigercatatonia recently looked at the Grey Cup odds for 2011 from Bodog, there's no reason not to give my own odds for who ends up hoisting the silverware in Vancouver. I'll give the odds in percentage terms, just to be clearer:

Montreal 26

Calgary 20

Saskatchewan 17

Hamilton 16

BC 8

Toronto 7

Edmonton 4

Winnipeg 2

Harsh to Edmonton and Winnipeg? Certainly, but both will be hard pressed to make the playoffs. let alone get to the Grey Cup and win it. Toronto's not guaranteed a playoff spot and still start Cleo Lemon. BC isn't great and frankly Wally Buono doesn't provide the advantage over other coaches he used too. That leaves the four frontrunners as the overwhelming favourites. Montreal has a shot to win three titles in a row (the last to do that being Edmonton in the early eighties) provided Anthony Calvillo stays healthy. There's still a lot of time before the start of the regular season, things could change somewhat between then and now.

2011 Grey Cup Odds

It is never to early make Grey Cup predictions, especially this time of year when the only news seems to be contract extensions. I found this list of Grey Cup odds for 2011, apparently from Bodog's site. I tried finding the actual list on Bodog, but could only find a cached version. The data seems a little off because only two teams have worse than 8 to 1 odds. Not sure what's up with that, but at least the ranking seems plausible, although Edmonton's odds should probably be higher. They did miss the playoffs in 2010 and I doubt many teams have gone from missing the playoffs one year and then winning the Grey Cup the next. Winnipeg probably will be terrible next year unless Buck Pierce can put together a healthy season, which should probably be a new euphemism for something that will absolutely never happen.

BC Lions 6/1
Calgary Stampeders 5/2
Edmonton Eskimos 7/1
Hamitlon Tiger-Cats 6/1
Montreal Alouettes 11/4
Saskatchewan Roughriders 11/2
Toronto Argonauts 9/1
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 12/1

Here's an editorial from the Guelph Mercury suggesting hosting a Ticat game during the Ivor Wynne rebuilding season. Seems about as likely as Buck Pierce putting together a healthy season, but at least places seem interested in hosting and in Guelph's favour it is a lot closer than Quebec City or Moncton.

Grey Cup Prediction, Montreal versus Saskatchewan

Due to being in Chile the best I can hope for is listening to the game over a bad internet connection. The latest line I've seen is 3.5 points in favour of Montreal which came down over the week. I would favour Montreal as well. Generally when they've had to play well they did, including last week's dismantling over the Argos. The Riders are a lot more consistent than the Argos and have an offensive attack that can challenge the Alouettes. I do think it will be close.

Alouettes 29, Saskatchewan 27

CFL Preseason Grey Cup Odds

Looking at Bodog, the current Grey Cup odds are:
BC 6/1
Calgary 5/1
Edmonton 7/1
Hamilton 10/1
Montreal 7/4
Saskatchewan 10/3
Toronto 25/1
Winnipeg 22/1

Well the Argos being last is not much of a surprise. The Ticats are listed at sixth, which seems a bit harsh since they are less than even, but probably reflects the overwhelming odds the Alouettes have. The Riders being second is a bit surprising, but some team has to be. Can't really argue with them at this early stage.

Ticats Hamilton Grey Cup in 2013?

I posted a couple of days ago about trying to get the Grey Cup in 2014 for the last season of Ivor Wynne. Now there's a story in the Spec about the Cats and the city trying for the Grey Cup in 2013, using the new stadium. There's several surprising things about this. First that the year would be 2013, which I assumed the stadium would not be finished by, especially considering it is June 2010 and the city and the Ticats are still bickering over a suitable stadium site. The other is holding it in the new stadium itself, which by itself would be quite small for the Grey Cup. Assuming the Cats somehow get a 25,000 seat stadium with open ends, the Cats could probably add bleachers at both end zones although getting above 40,000 might be difficult. Conceivably the stadium could be built such that adding extra bleachers for special events like the Grey Cup is an easier undertaking. I still think holding one last Grey Cup in Ivor Wynne is worth exploring, although the stadium may now be so decrepit, adding seats would more difficult than in 1996.

One issue that the Grey Cup brings up is obviously where is the hell is the stadium going to go? I've harped about this idea in the past, but putting a stadium in Confederation Park vastly increases the likelihood that visitors using the facility would stay in Burlington hotels rather than ones in downtown Hamilton. Not a huge deal for regular season games, but for a Grey Cup and a depressed Hamilton hotel market as it is, that's a lot less benefit for the city. I'm away next week, but maybe the week after I'll test drive going from a Burlington hotel to Confederation Park versus going from the Sheraton in Jackson Square. I'm guessing Burlington will end up a much shorter journey. What's the point of having a Grey Cup in Hamilton if Burlington slurps up all the benefits?

So with a Confederation Park site, the city could host a Grey Cup, try and arrange events downtown in the preceding week, but have a much more difficult time of it. Conversely a west harbour site is reasonably close to Hess Village. Maybe the possibility of making some money off a 2013 Grey Cup could help the Cats to agreeing to the west harbour.

Long Time No Post

Wow, almost a month between posts. Not good, but there wasn't a huge amount of news apart from more BS about the stadium, which makes me want to avoid posting. In the Spec, there's an article on the latest of the stadium, with council trying to figure out the committee to advise facilitator Michael Fenn. Doesn't sound so promising, but that's Hamilton city council for you.

In better news, the Grey Cup in Edmonton has sold out already, with more than 60,000 tickets sold. I contemplated going, but now I guess I won't, barring the Cats making it and the Euro going back up against the US dollar.

Here's a crazy Grey Cup idea. If 2014 is going to be the last season for Ivor Wynne, why not host the Grey Cup and expand the stadium like how it was done for 1996? The new stadium looks like it could end up quite small for Grey Cup hosting purposes, plus there's the sentimentality factor for the last game. Insane, maybe.

Season Ticket Missive

So I received the season ticket holder email today, as a proud holder of two tickets in section 5 (section 5 motto: we're cheap and we can probably move over towards the centre right after kickoff). Two points were worth noting. The first was regards to purchasing parking to go along with your season tickets. Lot J near Scott Park is $135, whereas A, D and K are $175. There's a lot B shown on the map right behind the stadium, but I guess that's for VIPs or something. Getting parking in J for $135 isn't so bad, as then you wouldn't have to creep around Ivor Wynne in your car like a pedophile looking for elusive street parking (and enraging locals at the same time) although it is over $10 per game. I wonder if a home playoff game is included in the price. I still believe there has to be a magical area near Ivor Wynne, where you're relatively close, and can easily find a spot near game time. Haven't found it yet.

The other point is that as a season ticket holder you can get Grey Cup tickets before the general public. The game is in Calgary this year and endzone tickets were available for $195, with bronzes for $225. The higher price tickets are apparently all sold out, which I take as a good sign considering that the draft hasn't even happened yet.

Grey Cup Droughts

Thinking about how long it has been since the Cats last won the Grey Cup in 1999, I decided to make a list of when the various teams last won the Cup. Out of the current teams in the league, only Winnipeg has had a longer drought than the Hammer and I'm guessing they're not ending it this season. I suppose since Ottawa has a conditional franchise, they are in a sense the team with the longest drought of over thirty years. Sarnia's also had a long, long drought, but I never hear any Sarnia Imperials expansion talk. Sarnia also won in 1934, so they were no one hit wonder.

2008 Calgary
2007 Saskatchewan
2006 BC
2005 Edmonton
2004 Toronto
2002 Montreal
1999 Hamilton
1995 Baltimore
1990 Winnipeg
1976 Ottawa
1936 Sarnia

Weird Grey Cup Fact: Luba was the half time entertainment for the 79th in 1991.