So the CFL has now approved changes to the convert rules, as per this Canadian Press article. Kicked single point converts move to the 32 yard line instead of the 12. Going for two will now be from the three yard line rather than the five.
The Canadian press article had the factoid that 99.4% of single point converts were made in 2014. Obviously that's pretty boring from an information theory standpoint. Something that would be 50/50 would be optimally exciting. Too bad that they didn't include the information for what the percentage was for field goals from that distance was last year. It isn't really clear where the ball is lined up though. I'm assuming it is at the 25 yard line which results in a 32 yard field goal attempt.
A 32 yard field goal attempt is still pretty easy, although I suppose in horrendous weather it could be a problem, plus I'm sure the stats from last year for 32 yard attempts aren't 99.4% like converts. This should force more two point attempts, especially for teams that have good balanced offenses (especially if the quarterback isn't a pylon). I'm sure statistically, from the three, a team with a good offense (like the Cats should be this year) should always go for it. Right now a single point attempt statistically is worth 0.994 points and that should decline probably to around 0.9 points for a 32 yard kick. I'm not sure the percentage for converts from the five last year, but I have to think that from the three the percentage is around 50% which would be worth more than 0.9 points. We'll see what happens, but CFL teams are pretty conservative.
I'm a little disappointed that the three point convert attempt from ten yards wasn't tried out in the exhibition season. That's a pretty radical change though.
1 comment:
I believe the success rate for FGs from 32 yards was somewhere between 80 and 81%. So a single attempt is worth 0.8 points. If plays from the three are 50% successful, then it's significantly better to go for two than for one.
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