With the rule changes to extra points and two point converts for the CFL in 2015, it no surprise that extra point kicking percentages are down from near perfect last year through the first two weeks of the season. CFL teams were good on 19 of 24 attempts for extra points which is now equivalent to a 32 yard field goal.
Hamilton's Justin Medlock is perfect in seven attempts, while Winnipeg's Hajrallahu has missed both his attempts. It is certainly possible that the accuracy will rise as the season goes on, although bad weather is more likely later in the year. No indoor games have been played yet either.
Considering that for a two point convert, the ball is scrimmaged on the three, being successful half the time would yield considerably more points on average throughout the season.
Showing posts with label convert. Show all posts
Showing posts with label convert. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
More Thoughts on the CFL's New Convert Rules
There's an opinion piece on SportNet's web site by Donnovan Bennett about the CFL's rule changes. To me the most interesting part of it is that it has stats on what the completion rate was for field goals from the new starting point:
"During the 2014 season, 99.4 percent of extra-point kicks were executed successfully while field-goal attempts from between 31 and 33 yards went through the uprights 81 percent of the time."
Assuming naively that would result in an average of 0.81 points for single point conversions versus the previous 0.994 points, that means that if the chance of making a two point convert from the three yard line is higher than 40.5% a team should always go for two barring end game situations.
Bennett does point out though that the field goal completion percentage for point afters will likely be higher than 81%:
"Add to that the fact that 81 percent isn’t a true metric when predicting “new extra point” success rates. Extra points will be kicked from the middle—not the wide hashmark the ball could be spotted on for a FG. Also, since there is no threat for a return, kickers don’t have to worry about drilling the ball through the end zone in case of a miss. Depending on which kicker you ask, that should improve the percentage of long extra points that are completed by another five to 10 percent."
Of course the completion percentage is probably less outside and highly weather dependent (and kicker dependent considering some of the mediocre kickers lately). For the Cats this year with Medlock, 32 yard field goals aren't really a big deal for him.
I'm not sure what the league expects in terms of going for two. Teams going for two all the time? Humans psychologically don't really like losing what they have, even when the odds are in their favour which going for two may be. Plus going for two and not making it will likely bring opprobrium from television commentators and newspaper columnists who aren't really known for their sophisticated statistical skills.
"During the 2014 season, 99.4 percent of extra-point kicks were executed successfully while field-goal attempts from between 31 and 33 yards went through the uprights 81 percent of the time."
Assuming naively that would result in an average of 0.81 points for single point conversions versus the previous 0.994 points, that means that if the chance of making a two point convert from the three yard line is higher than 40.5% a team should always go for two barring end game situations.
Bennett does point out though that the field goal completion percentage for point afters will likely be higher than 81%:
"Add to that the fact that 81 percent isn’t a true metric when predicting “new extra point” success rates. Extra points will be kicked from the middle—not the wide hashmark the ball could be spotted on for a FG. Also, since there is no threat for a return, kickers don’t have to worry about drilling the ball through the end zone in case of a miss. Depending on which kicker you ask, that should improve the percentage of long extra points that are completed by another five to 10 percent."
Of course the completion percentage is probably less outside and highly weather dependent (and kicker dependent considering some of the mediocre kickers lately). For the Cats this year with Medlock, 32 yard field goals aren't really a big deal for him.
I'm not sure what the league expects in terms of going for two. Teams going for two all the time? Humans psychologically don't really like losing what they have, even when the odds are in their favour which going for two may be. Plus going for two and not making it will likely bring opprobrium from television commentators and newspaper columnists who aren't really known for their sophisticated statistical skills.
Friday, April 10, 2015
CFL Changes Convert Rules for 2015 Season; Good Teams Should Always Go For Two
So the CFL has now approved changes to the convert rules, as per this Canadian Press article. Kicked single point converts move to the 32 yard line instead of the 12. Going for two will now be from the three yard line rather than the five.
The Canadian press article had the factoid that 99.4% of single point converts were made in 2014. Obviously that's pretty boring from an information theory standpoint. Something that would be 50/50 would be optimally exciting. Too bad that they didn't include the information for what the percentage was for field goals from that distance was last year. It isn't really clear where the ball is lined up though. I'm assuming it is at the 25 yard line which results in a 32 yard field goal attempt.
A 32 yard field goal attempt is still pretty easy, although I suppose in horrendous weather it could be a problem, plus I'm sure the stats from last year for 32 yard attempts aren't 99.4% like converts. This should force more two point attempts, especially for teams that have good balanced offenses (especially if the quarterback isn't a pylon). I'm sure statistically, from the three, a team with a good offense (like the Cats should be this year) should always go for it. Right now a single point attempt statistically is worth 0.994 points and that should decline probably to around 0.9 points for a 32 yard kick. I'm not sure the percentage for converts from the five last year, but I have to think that from the three the percentage is around 50% which would be worth more than 0.9 points. We'll see what happens, but CFL teams are pretty conservative.
I'm a little disappointed that the three point convert attempt from ten yards wasn't tried out in the exhibition season. That's a pretty radical change though.
The Canadian press article had the factoid that 99.4% of single point converts were made in 2014. Obviously that's pretty boring from an information theory standpoint. Something that would be 50/50 would be optimally exciting. Too bad that they didn't include the information for what the percentage was for field goals from that distance was last year. It isn't really clear where the ball is lined up though. I'm assuming it is at the 25 yard line which results in a 32 yard field goal attempt.
A 32 yard field goal attempt is still pretty easy, although I suppose in horrendous weather it could be a problem, plus I'm sure the stats from last year for 32 yard attempts aren't 99.4% like converts. This should force more two point attempts, especially for teams that have good balanced offenses (especially if the quarterback isn't a pylon). I'm sure statistically, from the three, a team with a good offense (like the Cats should be this year) should always go for it. Right now a single point attempt statistically is worth 0.994 points and that should decline probably to around 0.9 points for a 32 yard kick. I'm not sure the percentage for converts from the five last year, but I have to think that from the three the percentage is around 50% which would be worth more than 0.9 points. We'll see what happens, but CFL teams are pretty conservative.
I'm a little disappointed that the three point convert attempt from ten yards wasn't tried out in the exhibition season. That's a pretty radical change though.
Thursday, January 23, 2014
CFL Getting Rid of the Extra Point
This Toronto Star article discusses the CFL discussions on getting rid of the extra point after a TD. I do like the idea of making the TD seven points by itself and then adding a point if a what is now a two point convert is executed or losing a point if it fails.
One side effect of this is that the leagues scoring leaders would be less likely to be kickers as there no longer would their be an extra point for kicks and TD scorers would have more points assigned to them.
If the CFL wanted to be really crazy they could make the TD worth eight points to increasing the importance of TDs versus field goals. Of course that would screw with a lot records.
One side effect of this is that the leagues scoring leaders would be less likely to be kickers as there no longer would their be an extra point for kicks and TD scorers would have more points assigned to them.
If the CFL wanted to be really crazy they could make the TD worth eight points to increasing the importance of TDs versus field goals. Of course that would screw with a lot records.
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