January Power Rankings (Extremely Arbitrary)

Who says you can't have CFL power rankings in January? There's been coaching changes and quarterback flips galore, so there's enough info to base a half-assed ranking system.

1. BC Lions

I was tempted to have the Grey Cup champs lower, with some players leaving for the NFL, but they still have quarterback Travis Lulay and some decent young Canadian offensive talent (i.e. Andrew Harris). Wally Buono is now concentrating on the GM's role, but I don't think that hurts.

2. Montreal Alouettes

Still have Anthony Calvillo who is still consistent compared to the usual flock of mediocre to shitty quarterbacks most CFL teams have to deal with (why hello Cleo Lemon). Probably will lose some players to free agency, but most of them don't seem to do a lot after leaving Montreal. GM Jim Popp always seems to find some diamonds in the rough when training camp rolls around. Montreal could be in tougher this year in the East, but there's no guarantee any of the other teams will necessarily kick ass. So pretty safe to say Montreal will be decent, until Calvillo finally explodes.

3. Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Sure this is a bit of a homer pick, but after the first two, things become interchangeable. Burris to me is mostly meh, but having George Cortez as the new coach should get the most out of him and maybe something out of Quinton Porter too. Secondary is still weak and the defensive line could get worse if Justin Hickman leaves for the NFL or another CFL team. Maybe they shouldn't be this high. Linebackers are still good, although I've been wondering if they're a bit overrated. Still assuming that kicker Justin Hickman is back too. If he's not, ouch. I still remember Sandro DeAngelis.

4. Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Didn't really want them this high, mainly because of the strong statistical possibility of quarterback Buck Pierce getting injured in any game, but he made it to the Grey Cup this year, so what do I know? Well maybe that we'll be reading an article in the Globe and Mail in 15 years about how Pierce has the intellectual capacity of a lobotomy patient, but that doesn't affect this month's power rankings. The Bombers still have a good defence and continuity with the head coach and defensive co-ordinator and that will win you at least a few games.

5. Calgary Stampeders

Not a massive fan of new starting quarterback Drew Tate. I don't think he's bad, but I'm not convinced he's the second coming of Doug Flutie either. If he struggles, the Stamps are in trouble. Hufnagle is a good coach, so that counts for something.

6. Edmonton Eskimos

Pretty much the same deal as Calgary. I don't think Steven Jyles is bad, but I would hardly guarantee an MVP season out of him next year. How Jerome Messam comes back from a late season knee injury will be important too. Edmonton last year without Messam would have been pretty smelly. Fred Stamps is still great.

7. Toronto Argonauts

The Double Blue are clearly better after getting Ricky Ray, however the Argos had crappy receivers last year and I'm not convinced that the Argos will have better receivers next year (unless they sign Andy Fantuz somehow). Ray struggled last year when Fred Stamps was injured so don't expect miracles out of him. The Argos still have a decent defence and pretty good special teams. Could get into the playoffs, although that's not saying much in the CFL. Not sure if Cory Boyd is used up either.

8. Saskatchewan Roughriders

There probably will be some regression to the mean this year for the Riders, but why the Riders would be good this year with Durant as quarterback while they were crap last year hasn't really been answered. If Andy Fantuz comes back and fellow non-import receiver Rob Bagg can come back from injury, the Riders can start three non-import receivers including Chris Getzlaf and gain the benefits from starting more imports elsewhere. If Fantuz signs elsewhere look for mass suicides in Saskatchewan.

CFL Players of the Week, Week 8, 2011, Finally a Rider!

When there's only two games in a week, that kind of perverts the Players of the Week Awards. What would normally not be recognized is feted. Cats lie with dogs. The Saskatchewan Rough Riders actually win an award.

Former Cat Arland Bruce, the third iteration, won offensive player of the week with a nine catch, 129 yard, 2 TD effort. The question for BC's Bruce is whether he can still hit 1,000 yards this year. I say it is likely. Fellow Lion Aaron Hunt won the defensive player award with five tackles and three sacks. I know people like to disparage sacks as a stat, but if you're getting sacked all the time, things are not going well. A cornerback can register a tackle by tackling a receiver on the 1 yard line after a 108 yard reception. A sack is bad news no matter how you slice it.

The Argo's Noel Prefontaine won best special teams player with three field goals, including a 47 yarder. Over 50 yards and I would be more impressed, but that's what you get with only two games played.

And finally, the Riders snapped the shutout with receiver Chris Getzlaf grabbing four passes for 123 yards plus a TD. Of course the Riders still lost, partly because Getzlaf couldn't come down with the winning touchdown pass in the dying seconds. They don't include that part in the description on cfl.ca.

Unsurprisingly, no Eskimos won an award.

Keeping track of the awards on the year, the Alouettes have seven, the Bombers six, BC and Edmonton have five, Calgary and Toronto have three, the Ticats have only two despite four wins and the Riders have one award to go with their one victory.

Points For and Against Bizarreness, Greg Marshall Firing

After last night's game, the 5 and 3 Edmonton Eskimos have 173 points for and 190 points against, a little odd. Odder still, the BC Lions with a 2 and 6 record have 203 points for and 203 points against. Personally I think point differential should be the first tie breaker (even ahead of head to head record) so we'd be treated to crazy games where teams tried to score no matter what the current score.

After writing this post about the importance of Andy Fantuz to the Riders and the fact that not having him this year is the main reason for Saskatchewan sucking, the Rider braintrust has canned the former Ticat defensive co-ordinator. Sad, but something that had to be done, just to placate the fans and the general manager wasn't going to fire himself. The fact that the Riders are still inexplicably in the hunt for a playoff spot is an argument for keeping Marshall (who was fired before the BC victory), but the trigger was pulled. I'd be curious to see how many years Marshall signed for. The Riders are the most profitable team in the league, so if they signed Marshall to a three year deal, they can eat the next two and a half year's salary easily. No matter how much the Argos suck, I don't see Barker getting canned this year.

How Valuable Was Andy Fantuz to the Roughriders?

I watched parts of the Argos Riders game yesterday and for most of the game, the Riders were terrible. Which got me thinking about why the Riders are so terrible this year after a series of good years and the same quarterback. Darian Durant isn't some old quarterback whose skills are in terminal decline so why the difference year to year.

The most obvious difference this year is the absence of non-import receiver Andy Fantuz. Fantuz led the CFL last year in receiving yards, with 87 catches for 1,380 yards and six TDs. The Riders also had non-import receivers Chris Getzlaf (who had a good game last night, but couldn't come up with the winning TD) and Rob Bagg (who has been injured all this year). The Riders also had serviceable non-import receiver Jason Clairmont and an excellent import receiver in Weston Dressler.

The benefits last year of the Riders having three starting non-import receivers (although I'm not sure if Getzlaf and Bagg started almost every down, I'm pretty sure they didn't) meant they had a ton of flexibility with the import ratio. Between the receivers and their offensive line, the Riders likely had their seven required Canadian starters for every game and could have easily had an all American defence if they chose.

Fantuz' value individually is interesting, because he was both a non-import and arguably the best receiver in the league. Quarterbacks in the CFL are obviously considered the most important player and typically command by far the highest salaries, often between $400,000 and $500,000 in a low salary cap environment. Receivers can be paid well, but I've never heard a salary quoted as over $200,000. Fantuz drew significant defensive coverage yet was still able to produce, making his fellow receivers and running backs better. The evidence is the difference in performance between the Riders this year and last. Great last year and totally sucky this year, with a 1 and 7 record, but the same quarterback.

Fantuz went to try out for the NFL this year, where obviously orders of magnitude more money is available, with risk of not making the team. Considering how valuable Fantuz was to the Riders, the Riders should have offered significantly more money to Fantuz to induce him to stay, taking money from Durant if necessary. The Riders are likely paying Durant a big salary this year for a terrible team and now it seems, it isn't warranted.

CFL Predictions 2011, Week 8: Battle of the 1 and 6 Teams!

Saskatchewan at Toronto
Battle of the one and six teams! Two teams enter, one leaves with 100% more wins. Or if there's a tie everything is screwed up. With three teams in two divisions tied with a single victory, this game has bizarre playoff implications. If the Riders win, they'll have a stranglehold (such as it is) over Toronto for the third playoff spot in the West and the possibility of a cross-over, due to ties going to the in division team. If Toronto wins, they're a game a head.

The Argos are favoured by three points at home. Cleo "the Party" Lemon has a had a few good passing results lately but alas no victories. Perhaps one useful piece of information is that the Argos have been outscored by 55 points this year, the Riders by an atrocious 82. That's not good. Argos take it, in a mediocre fashion.
Suck People 27, Prairie People 13

BC at Edmonton
Can the Lions win another game? With the Eskimos reeling and their wide receiver cupboard bare, I'd consider the Lions if they were at home. But they're not and the Eskimos are favoured by 5.5. I say Edmonton and a healthy dose of Jerome Messam prevails. But no spread cover.
Murder People, Environmentalist People

Riders Too Good for Salary Cap

The Saskatchewan Roughriders have gone over the salary cap! Mind you by a measly 26K, but still. Teams should stay under it. Under league rules Saskatchewan is only fined the amount they went over (over $100,000 fines double, then triple after $300,000). Personally I think the league should make the fine double the amount right from dollar one.

Note the Riders also violated the salary cap in 2007 and in 2008.