2014 CFL Predictions Week 7

Saskatchewan at Winnipeg
I'm going to go with Winnipeg at home. I'm assuming they'll be plenty of more motivated against the hated Riders. The Riders seem a bit hot and cold this season.
Bombers 35 Riders 29

Edmonton at Montreal
Uh, Edmonton.

Hamilton at BC
The Tiger-Cats can win this game, but it is in BC which is usually difficult for EST teams. I expect the Cats to lose a close one and Kent Austin to blow a gasket.

Ottawa at Calgary
Uh, Calgary. 

Ticats Announce that Jeremiah Masoli to Start as Quarterback in Calgary

Just saw on Twitter that the @ticats have announced that Jeremiah Masoli will start at quarterback this week in Calgary for the injured Zach Collaros. So Dan LeFevour is now behind the biblically named Masoli on the depth chart, although given Kent Austin's predilections for multiple quarterbacks and the possibility of Masoli sucking in Cowtown, I'm sure we'll see LeFevour at some point.

Statistically I'm not sure that starting Masoli makes sense. In the second game (in the first game, neither threw a pass), Masoli was 5 for 15 for 118 yards with a TD and a pick. LeFevour was 8 for 11 for 70 yards with a pick. However Masoli fumbled three times versus only once for LeFevour. Masoli did rush twice for 32 yards though versus six rushes for LeFevour for 27 yards.

2013 CFL Predictions Week 18

Winnipeg at Toronto
It is has been a while since we had a Thursday game. So no procrastinating until Friday with my picks. The Bombers didn't look to bad against the Argos at home, but as the Bombers have been wont to do in 2013, they lost. In the Argonauts favour, Ricky Ray is now firmly back and the rust should be off. The Argos are also at home, which doesn't mean a lot since the double blue may be better on the road. The Bombers have nothing to lose, but not a lot to win either. I assume that there will be some evaluation of who should come back next year for Winnipeg. Probably a closer game than would be expected, but the Bombers aren't winning.
Argonauts 27 Bombers 23

Edmonton at BC
This game is interesting because neither time has much to play for. The Esks are out and the Lions can't get a home playoff game. No Lulay for this game is probably the most important fact. The Lions have lost three in a row and the Eskimos four. BC is at home, however I'm going to go for once with the Eskimos. Reilly has had a fair number of starts and should have the advantage over his counterpart DeMarco who hasn't played as well as he did initially.

Montreal at Hamilton
After last week's dismantling of the Hamilton offense by the Montreal defence, some would think the Cats are totally doomed. However it is often true in the CFL that it is difficult to win two games in a row against an opponent and Kent Austin is a good enough coach to make some adjustments to the Ticat offense. Despite what the CFL commentators said last week, Alouette quarterback Troy Smith wasn't actually very good with a completion rate just under 50%. Don't expect that to change this week. Plus Hamilton is 5 and 3 at home versus Montreal being 3 and 4 and Hamilton needs this game to get a home playoff game.
Ticats 33 Alouettes 24  

Saskatchewan at Calgary
Not much to play for for either team except to set an example for when they could meet in the playoffs. Both teams are hot, with the Stamps winning four straight and watermelon people winning three. Calgary has been basically unbeatable at home, at 7 and 1, while the Riders are a respectable 5 and 3 away from home. This could come down to a Jon Cornish versus Kory Sheets battle. However I think the true edge for Calgary is that Kevin Glenn is playing better than Darian Durant at the moment.
Stampeders 41 Riders 36 

Ticats At Stamps Loss

I was quite annoyed after watching the Ticats lose to the Stamps in Calgary on Friday night, that I waited for a day to write about it.

The Cats played well for most of the game and were ahead until right at the end. There were numerous instances where the Cats could have made a play that would have led them to win, but just couldn't made the play. It is always annoying as a fan, when your team is ahead late, but the other team always goes on the third down (because they have to) and ends up winning. Sometimes some more aggression on offense in those situations would guarantee the win. Toronto won, but as I'm writing this, Montreal is about to lose, so the weekend wasn't a total disaster.

Bo Levi Mitchell impressed me, although he didn't do a lot early. Certainly he's excellent for a third string quarterback. I can't even remember the Cats' third stringer.

Burris had a decent game, going 26 for 39 for 408 yards, two TDs but two picks. Gable had a great game, rushing 9 times for 53 yards, but had a massive 108 yards on only six catches. When was the last time a Ticat running back had over 100 yards receiving? Beats me. Gable is turning into a special player. Get your jerseys people!

Fantuz also had a good game with six catches for 96 yards and a TD. Ellingson only caught three passes for 57 yards. Likely he's drawing more coverage.

A good effort for a road game against a great team, but the fact they could easily have won is frustrating.

Montreal didn't look good tonight versus the Lions and will not have Anthony Calvillo next week in Moncton amongst other injuries. So the Cats have an excellent shot to put some distance between themselves and Montreal and come closer to locking up a playoff home game. Here's hoping they don't blow it late versus Montreal in New Brunswick.

Ticats.ca Article on Defensive End Brian Bulcke

The Ticats website has an article on non-import defensive tackle Brian Bulcke returning this week to Calgary after playing his first two seasons there. Bulcke has turned out to be a great free agent signing by the Cats, a non-import defensive starter in the middle of the line.

As Bulcke has turned out to be a great player, I've been wondering why Calgary didn't resign him. He comes from a good school in Stanford and majored in mechanical engineering so he's no moron. He has good size at 6'4" and 280 pounds. In his first year he had 11 tackles and a sack, while last year he had 18 tackles and two sacks so one would expect that his third year would show further improvement.

I then went and looked at Calgary's depth chart for the first game this year and saw that the Stamps started non-import Corey Mace at defensive tackle. So the Stamps were already set there. The Stamps only started one non-import on defense, so it was unlikely that the Stamps would start two non-imports on the defensive line (which would be pretty wacky). So in a way the Cats were lucky that Calgary probably couldn't keep Bulcke with Mace, especially if Bulcke wanted to start.

The Cats were a good destination for Bulcke considering they like going with two import offensive tackles as starters, meaning someone who could possibly start on defense would be given a decent shot.  

2013 CFL Power Rankings Week Seven

1. Saskatchewan Roughriders
OK, so they lost to the Stampeders on the road and aren't unbeaten anymore. I'm not booting them from the top spot just yet.
2. Calgary Stampeders
Beat the previously undefeated Riders and have three capable quarterbacks plus super non-import running back Jon Cornish. Pretty close to the top.
3. Toronto Argonauts
Apparently the Argos are for real, although smashing the Alouettes during a week of turmoil isn't super impressive, merely impressive. Ray seems a bit more injury prone this year, but for once the Argos have a non total tool backup quarterback.
4. BC Lions
Didn't play, but still have a winning record, which is something.
5. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Didn't play, but coming off a win, with a lot of injuries and a bye week to heal. Rumours are that Andy Fantuz is coming back, which should only improve the offense and help with the ratio.
6. Montreal Alouettes
Did play and did get smashed by the Argos after booting their head coach. Still have Calvillo and some talent.
7. Edmonton Eskimos
Didn't play but linebacker Sherritt is supposedly out for a while. This is not a good team.
8. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
CEO and GM are gone. That's a bit of turmoil. And Goltz is no longer apparently the starter for the rest of the season. 

2013 CFL Predictions Week 7

Toronto at Montreal
I'm not sure who's starting for Toronto, although considering the job the backup Collaros did, I'm not sure it matters. Montreal is at home and maybe they have some momentum from ditching their coach and installing GM Jim Popp as the new coach, but I'm going to pick Toronto. They just seem like a better team.
Argos 29 Alouettes 19

Saskatchewan at Calgary
This one is interesting and I'm assuming the Bo Levi Mitchell starts, although I'm not sure of that either. I'm not sure if Durrant starts for Saskatchewan, but I'm guessing he will after a week off. Calgary is at home, but I'm sure there will be a lot of Rider fans in attendance, so that won't be as big a factor as usual. I'm going to go out on a limb though and say that the Riders lose their first game of the season. It has to happen sometime. The Riders aren't that great, more of a factor how poor some of the teams seem this year (especially offenses).

Stampeders 28 Riders 26

Calgary Saddledome Flooded to 14th Row

Just read a tweet from @ianbusby that the Saddledome is flooded to the 14th row. Heard nothing so far about McMahon.

January Power Rankings (Extremely Arbitrary)

Who says you can't have CFL power rankings in January? There's been coaching changes and quarterback flips galore, so there's enough info to base a half-assed ranking system.

1. BC Lions

I was tempted to have the Grey Cup champs lower, with some players leaving for the NFL, but they still have quarterback Travis Lulay and some decent young Canadian offensive talent (i.e. Andrew Harris). Wally Buono is now concentrating on the GM's role, but I don't think that hurts.

2. Montreal Alouettes

Still have Anthony Calvillo who is still consistent compared to the usual flock of mediocre to shitty quarterbacks most CFL teams have to deal with (why hello Cleo Lemon). Probably will lose some players to free agency, but most of them don't seem to do a lot after leaving Montreal. GM Jim Popp always seems to find some diamonds in the rough when training camp rolls around. Montreal could be in tougher this year in the East, but there's no guarantee any of the other teams will necessarily kick ass. So pretty safe to say Montreal will be decent, until Calvillo finally explodes.

3. Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Sure this is a bit of a homer pick, but after the first two, things become interchangeable. Burris to me is mostly meh, but having George Cortez as the new coach should get the most out of him and maybe something out of Quinton Porter too. Secondary is still weak and the defensive line could get worse if Justin Hickman leaves for the NFL or another CFL team. Maybe they shouldn't be this high. Linebackers are still good, although I've been wondering if they're a bit overrated. Still assuming that kicker Justin Hickman is back too. If he's not, ouch. I still remember Sandro DeAngelis.

4. Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Didn't really want them this high, mainly because of the strong statistical possibility of quarterback Buck Pierce getting injured in any game, but he made it to the Grey Cup this year, so what do I know? Well maybe that we'll be reading an article in the Globe and Mail in 15 years about how Pierce has the intellectual capacity of a lobotomy patient, but that doesn't affect this month's power rankings. The Bombers still have a good defence and continuity with the head coach and defensive co-ordinator and that will win you at least a few games.

5. Calgary Stampeders

Not a massive fan of new starting quarterback Drew Tate. I don't think he's bad, but I'm not convinced he's the second coming of Doug Flutie either. If he struggles, the Stamps are in trouble. Hufnagle is a good coach, so that counts for something.

6. Edmonton Eskimos

Pretty much the same deal as Calgary. I don't think Steven Jyles is bad, but I would hardly guarantee an MVP season out of him next year. How Jerome Messam comes back from a late season knee injury will be important too. Edmonton last year without Messam would have been pretty smelly. Fred Stamps is still great.

7. Toronto Argonauts

The Double Blue are clearly better after getting Ricky Ray, however the Argos had crappy receivers last year and I'm not convinced that the Argos will have better receivers next year (unless they sign Andy Fantuz somehow). Ray struggled last year when Fred Stamps was injured so don't expect miracles out of him. The Argos still have a decent defence and pretty good special teams. Could get into the playoffs, although that's not saying much in the CFL. Not sure if Cory Boyd is used up either.

8. Saskatchewan Roughriders

There probably will be some regression to the mean this year for the Riders, but why the Riders would be good this year with Durant as quarterback while they were crap last year hasn't really been answered. If Andy Fantuz comes back and fellow non-import receiver Rob Bagg can come back from injury, the Riders can start three non-import receivers including Chris Getzlaf and gain the benefits from starting more imports elsewhere. If Fantuz signs elsewhere look for mass suicides in Saskatchewan.

CFL 2011 Attendance Analysis, League and Team Averages

A bit late, but here's the average attendances for each CFL team in 2011:

1. Edmonton 34625 (35035)

2. Calgary 30601 (30795)

3. Saskatchewan 30021 (30048)

4. BC 29725 (24327)

5. Winnipeg 29559 (26083)

6. Montreal 24058 (25012)

7. Hamilton 23676 (23890)

8. Toronto 20018 (22069)

Note stats on best road drawing teams are in this post.

The 2010 attendances are in parentheses. Only BC and Winnipeg showed increases with every other team having lower attendance. The order was pretty similar to, but BC was able to move ahead of Winnipeg and Montreal. Montreal had some games that did not sellout for once.

Overall, the average CFL attendance for a game was 24,698 a minor increase compared to the 24,140 of 2010. Maybe the league can get over 25,000 average attendance next year.

BC had a bit of a weird year for attendance. Still playing at Empire Field earlier in the season, the Lions reopened BC Place with 50,213 attendees against the Eskimos, the highest attended game of the CFL regular season.

Saskatchewan being the worst team this year didn't make a big difference in their own attendance, but hurt other teams (especially Calgary and Edmonton) when the Riders were their opponents. Hear's hoping for at least a 500 team for the Riders next year, as it's good for the CFL. The Riders should also consider trying to boost the capacity of Moasaic Field a bit more. I know it's already been juiced a bit, but if you have the worst record in the league and it doesn't do anything to your attendance, you can afford a couple of extra thousand seats.

Hamilton was slightly lower, but that included their home game in Moncton which dragged down the average attendance. However the Cats only had to sell tickets for eight home games in their own market. The Cats were also hurt by not having the Argos as an opponent on Labour Day as the Alouettes only drew 26,964. Hopefully in the last year in the old Ivor Wynne, the Cats can get a good number for attendance, including a game with the Argos back for Labour Day. Maybe they can pass the Alouettes in 2012 for average attendance.

Toronto was hurt by their sucky performance. With them hosting the Grey Cup next year, there's nowhere for the Argos to go but up.

Here's some analysis for last year's CFL attendance (2010).

Henry Burris Benched?

Looks like Calgary has benched quarterback Henry Burris in favour of Drew Tate for the Stampeders next game. I watched a lot of the game last week between Toronto and Calgary and Tate certainly looked a lot better than Burris. Burris looked especially bad on an ill advised throw that Byron Parker ran back for a touchdown. I do wonder though if this move would have been made if the Stamps were facing a team other than the woeful Saskatchewan Roughriders.

Thoughts on Touchdown Atlantic in Moncton

Just finished the drive back from Moncton after attending the Touchdown Atlantic
game. Certainly coming from Hamilton, seeing the 55 to 26 victory over the Calgary Stampeders made for a better drive home that's for sure. The stadium itself wasn't bad. I sat in one of the endzone sections. The view was worse than a seat between the goal lines, but acceptable. Concessions were a little understaffed, but you really can't expect much for a one off game. Regular cans of Canadian and Coors light were $6. Didn't seem like beer sales ended at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

The crowd wasn't super into the game, likely due to most fans not having a true home side to root for. The crowd was excited for the various big plays that occurred in the game, but probably hoped for a tighter game towards the end. A good number of Hamilton fans made the trek to Moncton, but the vast majority of people seemed to locals (or relatively local). The Stamps also had a surprising number of supporters. Weather was superb, sunny and realitively hot for late September. The grass was in excellent condition and didn't seem to be a huge factor in the game. Flyby was two helicopters.

I also attended the Saturday night Tigertown in the Empress theatre which turned out to be an intimate venue, with Pigskin Pete MCing. A lot of Hamiltonians were in attendance. CHML colour commentator John Salavantis spoke, as did Mayor Bob Bratina (I resisted the urge to yell out LRT forever while he was talking). The cheerleaders performed briefly and then a few hung around selling their charity calender. We were promised that Ticat president Scott Mitchell would speak, but I left pretty late and I never saw him so I'm not sure what was up with that. Molson cans were $4.50 which was good considering I consumed a solid number. The band Pogey was excellent. Tigertown to me seemed quite well done, so props to the team.

I'll have another post about the game itself tomorrow. Which was most enjoyable.

Could the Ticats Miss the Playoffs This Year?

After back to back losses for the Tiger-Cats, things have become murkier with regards to where the team ends up in terms of playoff position. At first glance, at 5 and 6 the Cats look good for at least third in the East. The 2 and 9 Argos are essentially out of it barring a miracle run over the last seven games.

The problem for the Cats is the cross-over spot, where the fourth place West team has a better record than the third place East team (or vice versa). The Lions now have the same record as the Cats and are considerably hotter now. The Eskimos and Stampeders both have 7 and 4 records and are likely to have better records than the Cats at the end of the season. Now the Saskatchewan Roughriders have a 4 and 7 record after winning three straight and are only a game back of the Cats.

For the cross-over the other division team has to have a better record, i.e. in division teams tied on points get the playoff spot, so the Cats do have an advantage. However the upcoming "home" game in Moncton against Calgary has become more important. If the Cats win, they either tie or stay close to Montreal and hosting a home playoff game is still possible, especially with a game remaining in Montreal. If the Cats lose and the Riders win (although they're playing BC which complicates this scenario) the two teams would then be tied. Henceforth, if the Riders even end up with a single point more at the end of the season they would be in over the Cats.

Certainly this makes for more excitement in the league, and is part of the reason for the crossover. For the Cats it makes this next game against Calgary crucial. Win it and beating Montreal is still possible. Lose and the possibility of losing out on a playoff spot becomes more likely. Too bad the Cats aren't getting the full home field Ivor Wynne advantage this weekend.

CFL Predictions, Week 9, 2011

Hamilton at Winnipeg

Certainly an interesting game, whether you're a fan of either team. Both have winning records, however the Bombers have only a single loss. Buck Pierce is healthy going into the game and coming off a bye week, which is good for Winnipeg, although whether he plays the full game is an unknown. Winnipeg has a great defence, especially the line and the secondary. Hamilton has a good defensive line and Kevin Glenn is enough of a veteran to not be overwhelmed and make stupid mistakes. Glenn may well suffer a few sacks, but the presence of Avon Cobourne should take some pressure off.

Probably how the game goes will depend on how Hamilton's defence does against Winnipeg's offence. The Hamilton defence has had some great games and some mediocre ones. If the line can't get any pressure on Pierce, or allows him to run for too many first downs, the Ticats will lose.

The most relevant stats for which team will win are the respective home and away records. The Bombers are 3 and 1 at home, the Ticats a mere 1 and 2 away. The Bombers are favoured by three, I'll pick against the Cats and a few extra points. I'm not always a homer.

Swaggerville People 29, Linux People 24

Montreal at Calgary,

Another game with teams with winning records with both teams being 5 and 2. Montreal has looked strong, although not the juggernaut of last year. Calgary hasn't looked that great despite being 5 and 2. The Stamps are at home, which should count for something, although bizarrely they have a 1 and 2 record there. Montreal has a 2 and 1 record on the road and is favoured by 1. Calgary could prove they are a great team and the favourite in the West with the Eskimos recent implosion, but I'm doubting it. The Alouettes win, as they so often annoyingly do.

Canadiens People 33, Chuckwagon People 26

CFLPower Rankings, Week 5, 2011

1. Edmonton
Nobody is more shocked than me. Difficult to argue that Fred Stamps is the best receiver in the CFL. Good defence too. I'm not sure how long it will last, but the Eskimos could end up with a ridiculous improvement in win total year over year.

2. Montreal
Too early to jump off the band wagon after a single loss, albeit one at home. I'm sort of assuming that Anthony Calvillo will be able to play this week. The Alouettes were not terrible with McPherson in at quarterback and made the game against the Riders close at the end.

What's up with the Alouettes not selling out their stadium? I can understand the opening being on that weird Moving Day (aka Canada Day) and not selling out, but a 3 and 0 team. Weird. At least that adds more data points for my best road drawing team post.

3. Winnipeg
Tempting to put them ahead of Montreal, but the Bombers aren't quite there yet. Impressive defence will keep them in games, especially in this year of mediocre CFL quarterbacks.

4. Hamilton
Winning on the road in BC is never easy for an EST team. Offense looked good in the first half, and the defence looked good at the end shutting down Travis Lulay. Good depth at import receiver and fabulous linebackers. The question remains whether they can beat a team with a winning record. You can't play winless teams every week.

5. Calgary
Looked smelly at home against the Eskimos. Henry Burris is not looking like his usual form. Defence also mediocre. Fortunately for the Stampeders, there's worse teams in the CFL.

6. Saskatchewan
Win a game on the road and suddenly you're no longer the worse team in the CFL. Not a great team by any means, but at least Durant seems like he's a quarterback again and there's receiving production from Dressler and Getzlaf.

7. Toronto
Cleo Lemon left the last game early due to tooth problems and the Argos haven't won since the first game of the season. A good defence means they probably won't descend into total suckitude, but it isn't looking good for matching their 9 and 9 record of 2010.

8. BC
Still winless and lost at home last game. Not a good combination. Buono should have switched to general manager only a while ago, if only to have someone to blame and fire. If the Lions keep honking, Buono really has to go totally. Also to those whose power rankings last week had BC significantly higher, you're idiots.

CFL Predictions 2011, Week 4

Back with another week of predictions and hopefully

Hamilton at BC
This is a tough one. BC has won no games, while the Cats have won one last week. The CFL is a league with a major home field advantage, so generally bad team versus bad team should mean picking the home team automatically. BC is favoured by 3.5 points. The Ticats did look like they were hitting on all cylinders. A bit of a contrarian and homer pick, I'll pick Hamilton in a close one. BC hasn't show me much at all yet.
Hamilton 27, BC 24

Winnipeg at Toronto,
The Bombers have an awesome defence and the Toronto offense led by quarterback Cleo Lemon frankly smells. I don't think either team is particularly good and the Bomber quarterback situation is pretty murky with injuries. The Argos are favoured by 3 at home. I'm going to say the Argos win, but don't cover in a low scoring game.
Toronto 17, Winnipeg 15

Edmonton at Calgary
The Eskimos are hot, winning three straight. The Stampeders have been somewhat meh with a 2 and 1 record. Calgary at home is favoured by 3 points. Seems like odds making for the CFL consists of taking the home team by three. But I digress. I don't think Edmonton is really that great and will lose a few games this year, including this one.
Calgary 35, Edmonton 29

Saskatchewan at Montreal,
Not looking good for the Riders, Saskatchewan has lost all three games, looking as bad last week in Hamilton as the average woman at last call at the Prince Edward Tavern on Barton Street on a Friday night. The Alouettes have won three straight, are favoured by 11 and are at home. They'll cover. Easily.
Montreal 43, Saskatchewan 13

CFL Players of Week By Team After Three Weeks

After three weeks of play, Montreal leads with four player of the week awards (offense, defence, special teams and top Canadian), followed by Winnipeg with three, Edmonton with two, and BC, Calgary and Hamilton with on a piece. My plan at the end of the season is to make a chart comparing team wins with player of the week awards won. My theory is that Toronto as the major media centre will end up with more awards than their wins would warrant, but so far no awards for Toronto. No Riders so far either.

CFL Rankings Week 4

1. Montreal
How many weeks was Montreal ranked number one last year. A fuck load. How many times will they be ranked number one this year. A fuck load. Playing an excretable 0 and 3 Saskatchewan at home this week, number one next week too.
2. Edmonton
I'm not sure what's happened, or if it will continue, but the Eskimos are a good team for now.
3. Calgary
The Stampeders don't seem like a great team this year, but in the land of the castrated, the one balled man is king. Plus they beat Winnipeg in a close one on the road.
4. Hamilton
This seems like a bit of a home pick, but presently the Bombers have a great defence and are on their third string quarterback going into game four. The Cat defence is good, plus the Ticats have actually scored more points than they have allowed despite a losing record. Kevin Glenn is effectively a one balled man compared to some of the quarterbacks starting this week.
5. Winnipeg
Awesome defence, no quarterback. Against half of the teams in the CFL, that's enough.
6. Toronto
Has won a game, has a credible defence. Starting Cleo "the Party" Lemon.
7. BC
Not Saskatchewn. Has built in advantage against EST teams.
8. Saskatchewan
Lose a bunch of good Canadian receivers and the wheels come off. Defence also now mediocre.

Buck Pierce Injured!

In tonight's game between Calgary and Winnipeg, Bomber quarterback Buck Pierce left the game with an injured quadriceps muscle. So that's three games in when Pierce went down with injury. However considering it is only an injured quadricep, he could easily be back newt week. Also Calgary won 21-20. Henry Burris had another weak game, going 17 for 32 for 183 yards and one TD.

Lions at Stampeders Pre-Season Game

Well when things started looking poorly for the Canucks, at least there was this game. Although I think the football team at my high school had more fans in the stands than the Stampeders appeared to tonight.

Non-import quarterback Brad Sinopoli looked OK in one series for Calgary and then poor for the following one. Not much interesting if you're not a Lion or Stampeder fan.