Thursday, August 7, 2008

Double Blue Team Rematch

So here we are again against the Toronto Argonauts, having beaten them handily in the first meeting of the year and gotten the monkey of beating the double blue off our backs. Now the last time we won at home versus the Argos. I can't remember and I'm too lazy to look it up. The Argos are currently 2.5 point favourites, which means we have a chance, although we don't have our best quarterback, running back or receiver (arguably Tony Miles). However the Argos would seem to be equally beat up, with receivers down left and right, forcing the start of one of their backup quarterbacks at wideout. Erstwhile Argo hope wide receiver Bethel Johnson is still out after being injured in the first Ticat Argo tilt. Richie Williams doesn't seem to be much of a dropoff from Printers at this stage, so we will call the injury situation even.

For the Cat offense, the offensive line has been shuffled once more, with left tackle Jonta Wordard (who once lived in my apartment building, but I never recognized him or had the chance to berate him) being cast aside to be replaced by Charles Thomas who was benched last week. Mediocre import tackles are surely one of the banes of my existence. Cavka stays at right tackle and nonimport Dyakowski stays in at left guard. So who will be the better turnstile, Woodard or Thomas? I say it is a wash, but a better line than two weeks ago with three imports starting. The Argos seem to run a three four defence, succesfully against the pass and not so successfully against the run. Not sure how things will turn out with Terry Caulley starting at running back this week in place of the injured Lumsden (and the noninjured Tre Smith). I don't expect a lot out of him, although he wasn't bad last year (again replacing Lumsden, I sense a theme). What I am hoping for and may get is a lot of Richie Williams legging it himself, especially if the Argos have good coverage down field. Hopefully Williams will remember where the first down marker is this week and time his slides accordingly. Sometimes he may even have to take some punishment to move the ball. The Cats won't win otherwise and Richie, you're not Anthony Cavillo, you won't break if you get tackled.

For the Cat receivers, Bauman is listed ahead of Woodcock, with the usual imports Rodriguez, JoJo, and Scott (I like to drop one in the first quarter just to get loosened up) Mitchell. Somehow Mitchell now leads the Cats in receiving, so maybe we'll get something out of him and Rodriguez, as they appear so far to be favourite targets of Williams. Maybe even a TD pass! Ok lets not get ahead of ourselves. Rushing TDs are fine and worked against the Argos last time. Williams has to be careful of the Argos secondary, as they are noted ball hawks.

On defence, things may not be too bad. The Argos have no running game to speak of, as they always seem to half heartedly try a couple of runs in the first half that go nowhere and then give up on the running back for the rest of the game. This doesn't include Kerry Joseph, who I'm sure will run and the Cats better try and limit him from reaching the first down marker. Perhaps this is where Moreno will have a big game. The defensive line has reverted to using nonimport McKay-Loescher on the end, with Lewis starting at the other end in place of Cornelius Anthony who started last week. I'm guessing that Anthony will come in on second and long situations to try and chase Joseph down, like he did once last week for a Cavillo sack. With the Argos receivers in chaos, maybe the line won't be revealed for the mediocrity it is.

For the secondary, Bradley is out a second week, which isn't good since Tisdale is young and seems ready to be lit up. Hopefully the other cornerback Gordon will cover Arland Bruce and things won't go poorly.

One thing about this game is that with the feebleness of the Argos offense, the Cats are in less danger of falling way behind. If the Cats can keep it close, they can run on first or second down, make first downs, and eat up the clock and wear down the rather crotchety Argo defence (O'Shea). A sure recipe for a Cats victory? Perhaps not, but I like the Cats chances in this game.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Aftermath of the Battle of the Mediocre Football Teams, Part Two

Well another game, another Cats loss, surprise, surprise. Obviously the most important thing to take from the result, a 40 to 33 Montreal victory, is the fact that we covered the spread! So effectively we exceeded our expectations. I'll take my positives where I can.

I've waited a while to write up this postgame report, as I'm never enthused about righting up a loss. So here goes. I was a little concerned going in with Williams starting, however I felt that there really wasn't a big dropoff compared to Printers and it wasn't like we won more than one game with Printers in anyways. Richie went 18 for 24 for 260 yards with two interceptions. He also ran 13 times for 79 yards, including two TD runs. That 75 % completion rate isn't bad and was no doubt helped by the times that Richie ran, rather than make a poor passing attempt. His 6.1 yards per rush was a little disappointing, considering I felt that if the Cats were going to win, Williams was going to have to run. Tre Smith and Jesse Lumsden combined didn't do a lot rushing, with 77 yards on 12 attempts (with a respectable 6.4 yards per rush), although combined with Williams' total, not too bad. Lumsden being hurt surely didn't help, as he is a superior back to Smith. Lumsden has got to find a way to stay in the game and do some damage in the second half when the defences are tired (and as so many teams have done to the Cats this year).

Receiver wise, Mitchell managed to prove me wrong by making three grabs for 89 yards, including some yards after the catch. Rodriguez was solid with six receptions for 85 yards and even tigercatatonia favourite (and cut from the team a few weeks ago) JoJo Walker had five grabs for 52 yards. Woodcock and Bauman didn't do much, so our import receivers were our best receivers for once.

On the offensive line, Thomas was out at right tackle, Cavka shifted over to right tackle and Dyakowski in at left guard. So down to only two imports from the week before and their play was marginally better. Still five sacks were allowed and Williams didn't seem to have loads of time.

On defence, Calvillo went 26 for 36 for 326 yards for a 72 % completion rate. Likely Jykine Bradley being out didn't help this. Cobourne rushed 17 times for 119 yards, which is not good enough. The Cats forced some Montreal turnovers which probably helped keep the score somewhat close. The defensive line got a bit more pressure than last week, including a sack by Cornelius Anthony that I pretty much predicted in my last post by running down the slowfooted Cavillo, however not enough pressure to win a game. Four imports on the line now and really a mediocre group. We'll see what next week brings.

I thought what really killed us was the TD from Cavillo on the first play of the third quarter that went 81 yards. With the score close, you can't give those up. Especially since through the first and second quarters, the game was kept close, with a surprisingly reasonable Ticat start. The other killer was on special teams with a few long returns that gave Montreal great field position and some gimme points. The Cats defence is not good enough to survive short field position.

Not much more to say. The Cats weren't blown out, but they're going to have to play better in all facets of the game to win.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Battle of the Mediocre Football Teams, Part Deux

That's right, both teams are mediocre. Montreal going into tonight's game is 2 and 3 and has lost three straight after winning their first two (including a week one drubbing of Hamilton). I didn't have a lot of confidence going into the season for Montreal and neither did a lot of prognosticators, considering they were ranked below Hamilton on odds to win the Grey Cup. I mainly based my prediction on the fact that Cavillo is getting older and older and is statistically likely to miss some games this year and that Montreal's recent history with backup QBs may be worse than Hamilton. However, if Montreal wins this week, they are even Steven on the season and out goes my thesis. Until Cavillo goes down in a couple of games for a stretch.

So no Printers this week, but we do have Richie Williams. I do like Printers more over the long haul, however it's not like he led us to the promised land so far, going 1 and 4. I like Richie for the fact that he's not afraid to run the ball if he sees a chance, which Printers has seemed unwilling to do much of this year, preferring to hang on to the ball in hopes of someone getting open down field. For the Ticats, picking up first downs in the first half, and allowing the run game to develop and the defence to stay relatively rested is critical. Nothing better than the QB picking up some cheap first downs and driving down the field. Statistically it is not like the Cats receivers have been the masters of yards after the catch (I'm looking at you Tony Miles, with a longest reception of 17 yards this season) anyways.

No Miles this week unfortunately, but Rodriguez is starting to look good with his jump ball abilities. I would love it if he made the habit of running a short route to the first down line, stopping, turning, jumping and making first down after first down in front of hapless defensive backs. From the depth chart, Rodriguez, Walker, Mitchell and Woodcock are starting at the receiver/slot positions, with Bauman backing up Woodcock and I assume Bauman coming in for five receiver packages (which it should be noted, didn't really work for us last week, with 8 an sack festival). Personally, I'd rather have Bauman in for Mitchell, and have Mitchell in for the five receiver set, as Mitchell has mostly proved his skills at dropping catchable balls and fumbling. Mediocre import receivers, truly the bane of a Ticat fan's existence the past few years.
On the line, import tackle and erstwhile turnstile Thomas is out and Cavka moves from guard to his apparent natural tackle position. Are tackles and guards like guitarists and bassists? Nonimport Dyakowski comes in to start now at guard. Last week I was excited for three imports starting on the offensive line. I figured it would be a glorious occasion of long Ticat runs interspersed with consecutive completions and a good time had by all. Not so. I think starting a third import doesn't really help that much. The third import might be a bit better than the nonimport, but not enough to matter over the game (and three imports are just asking for procedure penalties, which for the Cats is sometimes almost as bad as a sack) and certainly the import spot would be more valuable somewhere else. Which apparently is the defensive line where we are starting four imports. Interestingly, I looked at the Argos offensive line depth chart from last week and they only start one import. Hmmm.

Lumsden was kind of off and on last week, although he didn't get a lot of carries. I wouldn't mind him catching a few more passes, but I think part of the problem is that every team is keyed on Lumsden. Perhaps develop a situation where Lumsden is open, but Williams takes off instead. I'm fixated on Williams running I know. Apparently for this game the Alouettes are starting two rookies in the secondary. I'll end my ramblings about the offense on that note of hope.

On defence, well we are starting four imports on the line as I previously mentioned. A team might have three good imports, but I kind of wonder what quality you are getting for the fourth.

Cornelius Anthony (#48) is starting at one of the defensive end positions, despite usually being a linebacker and only being 222 pounds. Perhaps the Cats are hoping that he can morph into some sort of lesser Joe Montford. One thing that could work in his favour is the ability to track Cavillo down if gets flushed out of the pocket, or gasp, tries to run. I'm just assuming Anthony has some speed. Maybe Anthony (with his assumed relative speed) will drop back into coverage on occasion, with a DB or linebacker coming from the other side for a glorious Cat sack. The line and the whole defence looked reasonable apart from the end last week. Maybe they will get some pressure against the somewhat cagey Cavillo.

Provided Cavillo gets some pressure (a big if) I think the Cats secondary won't do to bad. Bradley being out hurts. Not really much to say here.

I like the Cats run defence, mainly because while it occasionally allows a first down here or there, it is not bad at stopping the runner after one or two yards on first down, setting up second and long. That's just my anecdotal observation and I can't really back it up. I hope I'm right.

The Cats are 10 point underdogs and I am hopeful they will cover the spread. In the fortuitous situation where Cavillo has to leave the game, I like the Cats. Maybe they'll even bring in Timmy to mop up...

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Odds and Ends

Here is a blog post during the season that doesn't have to do with a game directly. Amazing.

So a few comments Ticat related. Kori Dickerson DE (who had a pass knockdown last game) and DT Clinton Wayne (nonimport) got the heave ho off the roster after the Edmonton game. Interesting, considering that the offensive line seemed to be by far the biggest problem for the Cats in that game. Now word comes from Ken Peters in the Spec that RT Charles Thomas (import) is no longer starting and will be replaced by nonimport Peter Dyakowski. I wonder if Marcus Kavka will move to tackle from guard and Dyakowski will slide into a starting guard role from now on. Considering this is also a ratio move, what import will replace a nonimport and at what position. Perhaps the defensive line will go totally import, although considering all the players that have left recently who will they have to play? Obviously when NFL cutdowns roll around some new bodies will show up, only to leave like this year in July of next year. Rinse, repeat.

William Houston's CFL ratings are out today in the Globe. For the Esks vs. Cats it was 397,000 viewers, Als vs. Lions 661,000 combined on TSN/RDS and for the Argos vs. Riders it was 578,000 the largest of the season on TSN according to Houston. For the Thursday game, the Stampeders vs. Bombers was 536,000 fans which was the highest previous to the Argos Riders game. Seems like the move to TSN has worked out OK. Probably promoing on CTV doesn't hurt either. Sad the Cats had the least, but I wonder how they would do with a better team.

Statswise, Lumsden is second in rushing at 416 yards behind the Riders' Cates with 493. In receiving, the highest Cat is Miles at 20th with 223 yards. Interestingly, his longest reception was 17 yards so there's not a lot of yards after the catch happening there. Amazingly Rodriguez is only two spots behind him at 22th with 212 yards. Likely Rodriguez will pass Miles, since it seems that Miles will miss this game with a hamstring as well. Maybe if we had Miles last week, things would have been different.

Monday, July 28, 2008

Battle of the Mediocre Football Teams, the Aftermath

So while I couldn't be at the game due to a business trip, I did manage to catch it via the internet, which wasn't a bad way to experience the game, such as it was. At least it wasn't as bad a game as last week with Calgary, although the first half was quite painful in its own way.

I had predicted that with Lumsden back and Cavka in at guard (and three imports in total on the line) that the running game would probably do ok against an Edmonton team that has a better offense than a defence. On the first Ticats series they gave to ball to Lumsden who got around one yard. The offensive line on that play had almost no push forward. After that a sack. The next series a O'Neil Wilson drop for a first down on what in hindsight would have been a better running play. Then an overthrown ball to Woodcock. And so it went. Crappy passing plays, with the offensive line being overwhelmed by blitzes (which Lumsden didn't seem to be able to help much with either it must be mentioned) in five receiver sets. Why not a few more tight end setups on first down? Mix in a typical Mitchell drop (who had no catches), a fumbled snap and a reception by Woodcock and you had a mostly terrible offensive first half.

The defence in the first half played great, considering they were constantly getting back on the field. A bunch of Edmonton two and outs in the first half and really they kept the Cats in the game. Ricky Ray displayed his typical pass a lot, but not do much style that plagued him last year. I know he's won a Grey Cup, but then so has Marcus Crandell. Kamau Peterson was his usual mostly useless self in the first half. The line seemed to get some pressure at times and the secondary was great.

In the second half, the offense improved somewhat. The defence wasn't as hot as in the first half, but again they spent a lot of time on the field and couldn't stop the Eskimos at the end when they needed to (similar to the Saskatchewan game). Interestingly after the game, Clinton Wayne and Kori Dickerson were outright released. I thought the defensive line was ok, with a bunch of pass knockdowns (including one by Dickerson) so I'm not sure what is up with that. I almost would have rather we heaved somebody from the O-line.

Boneheaded play after Printers gets injured when the Cats were down near the goal line with 2nd and one and they go shotgun with Richie Williams and he ends up getting tackled for a few yards back and they have to settle for a field goal. Admittedly hindsight is great and if whatever they were trying to do would have worked they would have looked like heroes, but honestly? Either sneak it or give it to Lumsden on a power run and get some confidence and the first down and likely the TD afterwards.

Williams didn't play badly when he was in, going 7 for 11 for 138 yards (although obviously that was upped a bit by the desperate flurry at the end). Ultimately I think it is possible for the team to win with Williams in (although I still would somewhat rather Printers over the long haul), but he will have to use his feet in the next game if he starts the next game and pick up some easy first downs.

With regards to the receivers, the 6'5" Rodriguez was amazing with ten receptions for 155 yards. I have to admit, I felt a project like him wasn't something a poor team like the Ticats could afford, however he has worked out better than expected. Fantastic height and great hands, hopefully he can win a game for us down the road. JoJo Walker, despite being released and then brought back also had a decent game. Scott Mitchell, why is he starting? I would start Bauman at his slotback position along with Walker (providing Miles is still hurt) along with Woodcock and Rodriguez. Maybe put Mitchell in with five receiver packages, but he has dropped more passes than his catches would justify. With Bauman starting, that's another ratio player, so we could start four import linemen! Just joking, our line sucks with three imports as it is, and I would have to think the fourth would bring sucking to a new level. Keep Mitchell plastered to the bench though.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Edmonton Eskimos Game, Battle of the Mediocre Football Teams

The Cats are at home versus the Esks with a chance to go 2 and 3. Both are coming off losses with Hamilton the 2 point underdog. So there is definitely a chance for the Cats to win and pick up their second win, in July no less and Edmonton is playing on a short week. Ah, the soft bigotry of low expectations.

Obviously the big story is Jesse Lumsden's return and how that goes. Edmonton's defence is one of the more mediocre thus far (although not as bad as Winnipeg). Edmonton has given up 6.3 yards per rush so far this year, so that bodes well for Lumsden. Hopefully the Cats won't go too crazy this game relying on Lumsden exclusively. Instead they should try to mix in some Smith and have Printers make the odd first down scamper. With Lumsden playing and the import Cavka likely at guard, will that make the O-line effective. Fred Perry, Edmonton's rush end was lost last week with a delightfully gruesome leg injury (which I witnessed at a bar in Pearson's international departures terminal while munching on some surprisingly tasty nachos), so maybe it is time for a dominant offensive performance with Printers having forever to throw and long runs ripped off effortlessly. I'm almost overconfident.

Oh wait, Miles is out with a bad hamstring and erstwhile Catatonia favourite JoJo Walker is apparently in for him (despite being recently released) at slotback. I'm hoping Bauman and Woodcock will have good games, because I don't have a lot of confidence in Hamilton's import receivers. Maybe Mitchell will prove me wrong and score the Ticats first TD through the air.
I'm picking Lumsden on a screen or shovel pass for that illustrious honour.

On defence, well, if the offense can avoid sucking with turnovers and 2 and outs in the first half, they probably won't do too bad. Edmonton has a pretty pass happy offense with some rushing, but the Cats haven't done a bad job stopping the rush this year (although the stats don't really show it). Having Ricky Ray as your QB means you are going to have a lot of passing yards in your game, however it doesn't necessarily mean you are going to win. Last year Ray passed for a ton of yards (which Jason Maass definitely did not do), but the Esks were only marginally better than Hamilton. I'm not exactly sure how that's possible, but I believe it has something to do with a porous defence and falling behind. Hopefully Moreno will have a big game for once this year and the rejigged line with McKay-Loescher not starting (and Clinton Wayne nonimport starting at tackle wtf?) will get at least some pressure. Maybe we'll blitz and not get burned too badly.

This is the first of the blacked out games, which is a grievous mistake in my opinion. What if Hamilton actually does well in this game? Who's going to see it? Interestingly the most watched game so far this year was Toronto at Edmonton on July 10th, with 475,000 viewers.

Unfortunately, I won't be at the game in my usual seat in section 7, but I will attempt to watch it on broadband here in Deutschland. Failing that it is CHML, followed by the replay tomorrow. Go Cats! May the other team have a run of stunning incompetence.

The Stampeders Game

After a bad loss, I have a hard time getting around to writing a blog post about the game. I justify waiting by thinking it better not to write an angry post right after the game, but to reflect on it for a day or two. Well last week in Calgary, we lost badly 43 to 16 so here is a blog post after a lot of reflection.

I can't seem to track down the liveplay site of the game on www.cfl.com so I'll just have to go by memory and the game stats. Obviously one thing that jumps out at you this game is the bad start with multiple stupid mistakes. Smith juggling the ball, Printers having problems with the ball. Bad starts like this have hampered the Cats in other games, and if we were going to have any chance to win this game, we had to have a good start. Sometimes I wonder, why can't other teams have a bad start against the Cats every once in a while. We still have four games against Winnipeg, this year so maybe it will happen.

Lumsden not being in this game obviously didn't help matters. He hopefully would have been more sure handed then Smith and could have gained a few first downs in the half and slow the game down. Lumsden being in also allows the use of the import Cavka at guard in place of Dyakowski. That obviously helps for the run game, but it probably helps for the pass game too. Sometimes I wonder if Lumsden would be as effective if Dyakowski was in for him. I wonder too about keeping Dyakowski in at guard with Lumsden and substituting Mariuz for an import linebacker. We just picked up Cornelius Anthony who played linebacker for Calgary last year for Defensive Coordinator Denny Creehan, although I don't know how much of an upgrade he would be over Mariuz (although he did have 8 sacks last year).

Offensively, Smith at RB didn't do much, going 32 yards on 9 carries with two fumbles. That's not getting it done, and not the way to impress when you get the start. Printers only ran for 4 times for 12 yards (with a TD) which I don't think is good enough. I like how Printers would rather try and find a guy downfield than run, however a few more runs when there isn't much there for a first down or 7 or 8 yards on first down would help in my opinion. The threat to run also alters the defence, so I would like to see Printers run it approximately 8 times a game (although to be fair, Burris only ran once for one yard and that worked out OK for him). Of course, being down almost the entire game can screw up the game plan. Printers was 17 for 26 for 209 yards, for a 65.4 % completion percentage. Two fumbles and two interceptions don't help. Mitchell and Miles weren't bad receiving, which they should be considering they are imports. Bauman and Woodcock didn't do much this game unfortunately.

Defensively, the Cats couldn't get any pressure on Burris and he picked them apart. The offense in the first half didn't help, with almost no sustained drives. The Cats defence is by no means great, but the only way they are going to do anything is if the offense can win the time of possession battle. Not really much to say here. Hopefully more pressure, maybe some turnovers, in the future, along with a sack or two and some two and outs.

Setta punted magnificently, albeit in some cases wind aided, and he kept the score respectable in the first half. Seems a waste of a great effort, but if everyone else is sucking, what can you do? Hopefully down the line, Setta will contribute to a few wins.

Not much else to say about that game. They probably don't win with Lumsden, unless he has a truly monster game, but it certainly would have been more respectable.