2014 CFL Predictions Week

BC at Ottawa
Uh Lions? Ottawa has disappointed me. I knew they would be bad, but not this bad.  They're at home, but it won't matter.
Lions 30 REDBLACKS 12

Calgary at Edmonton
Last I heard Edmonton's Reilly won't be good at quarterback. Nicholls the backup isn't bad, but not Reilly good. Plus Cornish is back for Calgary and looking good.
Stampeders 39 Eskimos 31

Hamilton at Montreal
Crompton looked decent for Montreal last week, but Collaros looked way better for Hamilton in his return. Hamilton's defence also looked dominant against Ricky Ray and Crompton is no Ricky Ray.
Ticats 28 Alouettes 26

Saskatchewan at Winnipeg
I'm going to go with the Bombers at home. It was a close game between these two last week in Regina and I think the Bombers will be fired up.
Bombers 28 Riders 27

CFL 2011 Attendance Analysis, League and Team Averages

A bit late, but here's the average attendances for each CFL team in 2011:

1. Edmonton 34625 (35035)

2. Calgary 30601 (30795)

3. Saskatchewan 30021 (30048)

4. BC 29725 (24327)

5. Winnipeg 29559 (26083)

6. Montreal 24058 (25012)

7. Hamilton 23676 (23890)

8. Toronto 20018 (22069)

Note stats on best road drawing teams are in this post.

The 2010 attendances are in parentheses. Only BC and Winnipeg showed increases with every other team having lower attendance. The order was pretty similar to, but BC was able to move ahead of Winnipeg and Montreal. Montreal had some games that did not sellout for once.

Overall, the average CFL attendance for a game was 24,698 a minor increase compared to the 24,140 of 2010. Maybe the league can get over 25,000 average attendance next year.

BC had a bit of a weird year for attendance. Still playing at Empire Field earlier in the season, the Lions reopened BC Place with 50,213 attendees against the Eskimos, the highest attended game of the CFL regular season.

Saskatchewan being the worst team this year didn't make a big difference in their own attendance, but hurt other teams (especially Calgary and Edmonton) when the Riders were their opponents. Hear's hoping for at least a 500 team for the Riders next year, as it's good for the CFL. The Riders should also consider trying to boost the capacity of Moasaic Field a bit more. I know it's already been juiced a bit, but if you have the worst record in the league and it doesn't do anything to your attendance, you can afford a couple of extra thousand seats.

Hamilton was slightly lower, but that included their home game in Moncton which dragged down the average attendance. However the Cats only had to sell tickets for eight home games in their own market. The Cats were also hurt by not having the Argos as an opponent on Labour Day as the Alouettes only drew 26,964. Hopefully in the last year in the old Ivor Wynne, the Cats can get a good number for attendance, including a game with the Argos back for Labour Day. Maybe they can pass the Alouettes in 2012 for average attendance.

Toronto was hurt by their sucky performance. With them hosting the Grey Cup next year, there's nowhere for the Argos to go but up.

Here's some analysis for last year's CFL attendance (2010).

CFL Power Rankings, 2011 Post Semi-Finals Edition

Who says you can't do power rankings after the end of the regular season?

1. BC Lions
Didn't play, but didn't have any injuries either. Beating Montreal 43-1 now looks doubly impressive after the Alouettes last game.
2. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Big battle with Montreal on the road, but rolled with punches and made the big plays when needed. Two headed quarterback monster is scary. Bakari Grant is emerging as a force at receiver. Will they have Stevie Baggs back in the lineup? Have momentum.
3. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Also did not play, Buck Pierce situation still up in the air. Had a weak end of the regular season.
4. Edmonton Eskimos
Injured Jerome Messam? Esks are toast in BC.
5. Montreal Alouettes
Anthony Calvillo put up big numbers, but ultimately the defence couldn't get it done and gave up too many TDs to the Cats.
6. Calgary Stampeders
Not a bad team, but not great either. Burris is probably gone next year.
7. Toronto Argonauts
Locker rooms cleaned out, but they are still better than the Riders.
8. Saskatchewan Rough Riders
See above.

CFL Power Rankings, Week 10, 2011

1. Winnipeg
OK so they sucked on the road in Regina. Every time has a speed bump now and then. With only two losses, the Bombers are still the class of the CFL. Unless they lose to the Riders at home this week.
2. Hamilton
Homer pick? Good point differential, plus they've now beat Montreal twice, with a thumping last week. Good team with potential to be great.
3. Montreal
Needs to stop losing to Hamilton. Defence is still good, but Calvillo is looking a little shakier. Always waxes the crap teams.
4. Calgary
Good record, loss to the Eskimos at home, have only scored one more point than they've given up over nine games.
5. BC
Bad record, beat Toronto on the road, have scored 13 more points than they've allowed. Not really sure what they would do right now against a great team.
6. Edmonton
Excellent victory over the Stamps showed they've still got something. When Stamps comes back from injury, they'll move up.
7. Saskatchewan
Beat the top team at home, new old coach and have Fantuz coming back. The Riders should move up the rankings, but they're still 2 and 7.
8. Toronto
Getting rid of Cleo "the Party" Lemon is definitely addition by subtraction. Until Jyles shows something, the Argos are a bad team trying to figure out who to keep for next year.

Bombers Quarterback Woes, Trafalis an Answer?

With Winnipeg quarterback Buck Pierce injured yet again and backup Joey Elliot out for the year with a torn ACL making a tackle after an interception*, the Bombers are somewhat pooched in the quarterback department. This article goes over the problem and mentions the next three quarterbacks on the depth chart, Alex Brink, Justin Goltz and Brandon Summers. The Bombers picking up former Ticat third stringer Adam Trafalis wouldn't be a bad idea. Trafalis at least has been around the CFL for a while now. Sure the Ticats picked Jason Boltus as their third string quarterback over Trafalis this year, but with an excellent defence, you might be able to win some games with someone who's been in the league longer than training camp, with the added bonus of making Matt Dunnigan happy. With the way Bomber quarterbacks are dropping, they could soon be playing raw rookie fourth and fifth stringers. Hopefully against the Ticats.

* If you can't make one tackle on a defensive back without totally blowing out your knee, maybe professional football isn't for you.

Argos Trade With Bombers for Steven Jyles

News that the Argos have tried to rectify their Cleo Lemon quarterbacking problem by trading their first round pick (fourth overall) in the upcoming 2011 CFL draft to Winnipeg, plus a conditional pick for quarterback Steven Jyles (28, 6'1", 202 pounds). Jyles, who played at the august institution of higher learning, the Universty of Louisiana at Monroe, was 196 for 381 last year passing (61.6). Jyles threw last year for 19 TDs versus 7 picks and a 100.9 passer rating. Jyles also rushed 65 times for 452 yards for a respectable 7.0 yard average.

Winnipeg was still terrible last year with Jyles, which leaves questions for both teams. Is Jyles better than Cleo Lemon? Likely, although he's probably not that much better. Is Toronto smart trading away first round picks for immediate relief? Probably not. Is Winnipeg banking on one of the most fragile players ever to play in the CFL in quarterback Buck Pierce? Apparently so, although the fourth overall pick won't hurt. We'll see how this pans out and if Cleo "the Party" Lemon makes it out of Toronto's training camp.

Lumsden, Argos?

I had meant to post about former Ticat and Marauder Jesse Lumsden being released by Edmonton, but did not get around to it. Certainly sad for an at times great player. In the National Post Toronto GM Adam Rita discussed the possibility of signing Lumsden if healthy. A signing is certainly possible and the Argos seem the logical candidate without a de facto import starting running back, however the biggest risk with signing Lumsden is if he gets injured in the first game like last year and misses the entire season. That salary doesn't count against the salary cap if he goes on the nine game injury list, but it does count against the bottom line and CFL teams (apart from the Riders) can't waste money like that.

My prediction is that Lumsden gets signed part way through the season, rather than go to a training camp. He can't be an every down player any more, but he wouldn't be bad platooning and he is still good coming out from the back field as a receiver.

Also in the Post, a mention of Bob Young's opposition to the West Harbour site.

Ticats Stuff

Drew Edwards had a good article about Obie's future moves. Probably the most interesting part of the article for me was the possibility that the Cats would start eight Canadians rather than the mandated seven. Whenever I've done posted about the Ticats game day depth chart, they have always used only seven, while a few teams would use eight or sometimes nine regularly (Montreal). Starting the bare seven always is generally indicative of a poor team (Argos), which the Cats until this year were for quite some time. Last year the Canadian starters were the four on the line, plus Stala and Bauman plus Beveridge on defence. I'm curious to see who the Cats end up going with for eight.

The Argos in the new Braley era have started to make some moves, shipping Canadian receivers Andre Talbot and Brad Smith for import defensive tackle Eric Taylor and a 2011 draft pick. Talbot I can see, because he was injured and caught one pass last year, so now the Argos won't have him to not play for them this year. Smith turned out to be not too bad on a rather feeble offense. Not sure why the Argos moved two Canadian receivers when injuries hit them hard there last year, but I'm sure there is some washed out former first round NFL draft pick receivers available this year, just like the Argos every year.

Tying these two paragraphs together, if the Cats are looking at maybe starting an eighth Canadian, that must mean the teams are assuming that the number of Canadian starters will stay at seven with a new agreement with the players. Conceivably Cynammon and the other Argo owner whose name I now and will probably forever more forget were probably the main proponents of the reduction in the number of Canadian starters and with them gone and their vote taken by Braley may mean it is a dead issue. I hope so.