Thoughts on the Ticats Blowout of the Blue Bombers, 52 to 26, in Week 2

There was a brief period when I thought that Winnipeg might win the game against Hamilton, but then Drew Willy was injured (yet another CFL quarterback down in five regular season games) and Brandon Banks scored a TD on a punt return and the rout was one.

Zach Collaros had a pretty good game, going 26 for 33 for 354 yards with 2 TDs and no interceptions. The Ticats run production was again weak, with Holley have six carries for just 16 yards, but with the passing offense working, it didn't need to be.

Bakari Grant ended up having the best performance with five catches for 117 yards, although he did have a fumble in the first half. Sinkfield also had a good game with 3 catches for 78 yards and Fantuz seems to be doing especially well this year with 8 catches for 73 yards.

Medlock kicked three field goals and five extra points, while Hajrullahu missed both his extra points.

Defensively the Ticats were pretty dominant and even had three interceptions.

I was a little concerned that the Ticats wouldn't perform well after a heart breaking loss to Calgary, however the team bounced back which is important considering the fact the team started with a number of road games. It is interesting the Cats are doing well despite all their injuries. Luke Tasker would seem to be the biggest problem, although the team seems well stocked with import receivers. Holley is probably worse than Gable or Grigsby, but given how pass oriented the Ticats are, the difference in player quality isn't that much.

With Willy gone, at least for a couple of weeks, the Bombers are a bit screwed, although considering the number of other starters out in the CFL, things could be worse.

Winnipeg Gets 2015 Grey Cup

Just saw on Twitter that the Bombers have been awarded the 2015 Grey Cup. I'm going to go out on a limb and say there's not much of a chance of the Bombers being in the 2015 Grey Cup, but stranger things have happened.

Hamilton would appear to have a good shot for the 2016 Grey Cup, as the stadium will be completed certainly some time in 2014. We're just not sure when. That would be 20 years after the last Hamilton Grey Cup.

Cats Win! Quick Thoughts on Victory over Winnipeg

Just got back from Guelph where the Cats won impressively over the Bombers. Both the offense and defense looked good. The only problem is, how much of a test are the Bombers? They played three quarterbacks today and their offense was pretty feeble. Good that the Cats beat them two weeks in a row, but the rest of the league will be tougher.

Burris looked good, as did LeFevour in his few series. Surprised to see Moore with three catches for 67 yards, where did he come from?

Good weather for once in Guelph, but Highway 6 was jammed and slow both ways today. If you can find a way to avoid Highway 6 on the way to Guelph, do it.

2013 CFL Predictions Week 8

Hamilton at Winnipeg
Hamilton is coming off a road win and the Bombers are in disarray management wise and are going with their third string quarterback as the starter. I think that's going to be a Hamilton win, although stranger things have happened.
Tiger-Cats 35 Bombers 21

Montreal at Saskatchewan
Sure the Riders lost last week on the road, but they're at home and their opponent is Montreal who have jettisoned their coach. Anthony Calvillo has looked 40 this year and this could be his last season. Riders easily.
Riders 32 Alouettes 19

Calgary at BC
The Stamps come off a big win last week versus Saskatchewan, while the Lions are on a bye week. Both teams are good, but I'm going to go with BC's historically strong home record. Probably going against momentum, but the bye week should be useful for injuries.
Lions 28 Stampeders 25

Edmonton at Toronto
Still not sure who starts for Toronto, but I'm guessing Ricky Ray although the Argos at least have a competent backup. Edmonton is not in good shape and are on the road. Is Kavis Reed's job in danger? Who knows? Toronto wins easily.
Argos 29 Edmonton 25

2013 CFL Week 6 Predictions.

Hamilton at Edmonton
Battle of the 1 and 4 teams. Edmonton won the first encounter in Guelph. I probably should bet on the Esks at home, however I think that the Burris will probably have a good game and the defense won't do too badly. That may be a bit of bias, but the team is bad, not completely bad. Still not having Fantuz back really hurts.
Tiger-Cats 29 Eskimos 22

Winnipeg at BC
BC lost pretty badly to Toronto in Toronto, so I'm sure they'll want to avenge that lose. The Lions are significantly better at home than on the road in history. The Bombers have at least moved on from Buck Pierce to Goltz which is something. He'll have a hard time outgunning Lulay though.
Lions 35 Bombers 21

Ricky Ray on Fire Against the Bombers, Breask Completion Percentage Record

Didn't watch the game, but just checked the box score. Ray was 19 for 20 (95%) for 286 yards for 2 TDs and no picks and apparently broke his record for the best passing percentage. Plus he led the Argos in rushing with 2 rushes for 24 yards and was sacked a single time.

That's pretty impressive. Or perhaps the Winnipeg defensive backs and pass rush is just that bad. Weirdly the Bombers sacked the Ticats Henry Burris seven times, but still gave up a lot of passing yards. Not good times in the Peg, but I doubt many are really surprised.

Thoughts on Winnipeg Pre-Season Game, Results and Guelph Experience

I drove up to Guelph yesterday for the pre-season game against Winnipeg. I already blogged about the price of beers, $9 for a bottle shaped can of Canadian or Coors Light. I had a sausage on a bun for $6 and some popcorn for $5. Don't get the potato chips, they were $2.50 for a 40 g bag. Several food trucks were there, including Dirty South, whose prices were pretty reasonable considering it was inside the stadium. Lots of concessions overall, considering there was over 12,000 in attendance and a capacity of only 15,000 or so. Port-a-Potties for washrooms. Interestingly the smoking area was outside the stadium grounds and required re-entry (as my friend pointed out, there's probably no smoking allowed on the university grounds).

I paid $10 for a university lot that was a long, long walk. My friend parked at a closer lot and paid nothing, although in future one should be careful of parking tickets. Didn't seem to be many residential lawns to park on.

Obviously winning 52-0, the Ticats looked good. Most importantly Henry Burris connected with non-import slotback Andy Fantuz several times in the first half and looked in mid-season form. Some nice tosses to non-import Sam Giguerre right on the sideline, sometimes with another receiver right near by.

The secondary looked good, with a ridiculous number of picks thrown by Winnipeg's backups. The Bombers did leave 11 starters at home, however if and when Buck Pierce goes down, those quarterbacks are who Winnipeg is going to be throwing into the fire.

I believe the return team returned a punt for TD, which was nice considering it looks like there's no Chris Williams coming anytime soon.

Considering Winnipeg wasn't at peak form with a lot of backups and no-hopers, one shouldn't draw too much from the game. I don't think the Bombers are really 52-0 bad, but contesting for last place does seem to be a pretty decent bet.

Toronto will be tough next week in Dead Ted's Dome (TM), however as previously mentioned the Ticat passing offence was looking good, which can often be enough in the CFL for the first couple of games, considering there are only two pre-season games.

CFL Predictions 2012 Week 6

Montreal at Winnipeg
Battle of the losing record teams! I assume the Bombers are going with Brink at quarterback, but I don't know that for sure. The Alouettes will obviously go with Calvillo who is a little beat up of late. Montreal is favoured by two on the road, which is basically damning with faint praise. Basically one team has a good offense and a bad defence and vice versa for the other. When that's the case, I'll go with the home team.
Bombers 24 Alouettes 23

BC at Toronto
The Argos now have a competent offense with Ricky Ray at the controls. Certainly not awe inspiring, but Ray is quite capable of burning a secondary if given a chance. The Lions have a ton of talent but have been inconsistent so far this year. Coming off a solid victory last week the Lions are favoured by a mere field goal on the road. I'm not sure if the Argos can contain the Lion offense enough to get by with their offense. Lions.
Lions 31 Team Suck 28

CFL 2012 Predictions, Week 1, Part A

Saskatchewan at Hamilton,
You never really know what teams are going to be like before the season starts. The Riders will probably not be good. I won't say there will be terrible, like 3 and 15 terrible, but I doubt they will be 500. The Cats should have a good enough offense to carry them this year.

That said, I'm pretty sure the Cats will take this one. They are at home, looked good in the pre-season when Burris was at the controls and the Riders were poor during the pre-season and lost Fantuz to the Ticats. Current Vegas odds are the Cats by 7.

Ticats 27, Fantuzless People 18

Winnipeg at BC
BC is coming off a Grey Cup win, playing at home, looked like they were going to lose some players to the NFL and then didn't and have the best quarterback. The Bombers didn't do much of anything in the off-season and don't have ratio breaker Doug Brown to stuff the middle anymore. And their starting running back just exploded his Achilles. Current line is the Lions by 7.5.

Buck Pierce could have a monster game or get injured. You just don't know. I'm going with the Lions.

Left Coast People 23, Mosquito People 16

Ticats Second Pre-Season Game Lineup

Nothing remarkably notable about the lineup. Markeith Knowlton is listed as a starter at linebacker, along with Johnson and Williams, with non-import Eiben as a backup. Defensive line starters are all imports, which again isn't a surprise, with Powell and Boudreaux as the ends and Rose and McElveen in the middle.

Import Turenne starts at one corner, but with non-import Bucknor at the other corner. I assume Bucknor is being auditioned to see if he's worthy of being a backup if the Cats start a non-import. Young and Smith are the halfbacks, with Webb being the import safety starter.

On the offence, import known entity Simmons starts and import not known entity Dile starts. No Hage starting in the middle, with non-import O'Neill starting. Usual suspect and brilliant non-import Peter Dyakowski starts at guard, with non-import Husband is the other guard.

Burris is listed as the quarterback starter, with Walker the starting running back, but Avon Cobourne is in as backup. Williams and non-import Giguere are listed as the starting wide receivers. Jones and non-import Dave Stala are listed as the slotback starters.

On offence look for Porter to do something positive, or risk having the team give up on him. Also watch if Cobourne has something to prove when he gets the ball after being released earlier by the team. Is Giguere good enough to start as a non-import receiver? If he does, that makes things easier ratio wise.

On defence, everything focuses on the defensive line. Will they get any pass rush? Probably more important against Winnipeg, can they stop the run? They're all imports so that should help, although I doubt any is getting paid much money and none can be considered a CFL name. The line needs Peach back for the season, although if the pre-season is any indication, the number of games Peach actually plays in could be quite low.

CFLPower Rankings, Week 5, 2011

1. Edmonton
Nobody is more shocked than me. Difficult to argue that Fred Stamps is the best receiver in the CFL. Good defence too. I'm not sure how long it will last, but the Eskimos could end up with a ridiculous improvement in win total year over year.

2. Montreal
Too early to jump off the band wagon after a single loss, albeit one at home. I'm sort of assuming that Anthony Calvillo will be able to play this week. The Alouettes were not terrible with McPherson in at quarterback and made the game against the Riders close at the end.

What's up with the Alouettes not selling out their stadium? I can understand the opening being on that weird Moving Day (aka Canada Day) and not selling out, but a 3 and 0 team. Weird. At least that adds more data points for my best road drawing team post.

3. Winnipeg
Tempting to put them ahead of Montreal, but the Bombers aren't quite there yet. Impressive defence will keep them in games, especially in this year of mediocre CFL quarterbacks.

4. Hamilton
Winning on the road in BC is never easy for an EST team. Offense looked good in the first half, and the defence looked good at the end shutting down Travis Lulay. Good depth at import receiver and fabulous linebackers. The question remains whether they can beat a team with a winning record. You can't play winless teams every week.

5. Calgary
Looked smelly at home against the Eskimos. Henry Burris is not looking like his usual form. Defence also mediocre. Fortunately for the Stampeders, there's worse teams in the CFL.

6. Saskatchewan
Win a game on the road and suddenly you're no longer the worse team in the CFL. Not a great team by any means, but at least Durant seems like he's a quarterback again and there's receiving production from Dressler and Getzlaf.

7. Toronto
Cleo Lemon left the last game early due to tooth problems and the Argos haven't won since the first game of the season. A good defence means they probably won't descend into total suckitude, but it isn't looking good for matching their 9 and 9 record of 2010.

8. BC
Still winless and lost at home last game. Not a good combination. Buono should have switched to general manager only a while ago, if only to have someone to blame and fire. If the Lions keep honking, Buono really has to go totally. Also to those whose power rankings last week had BC significantly higher, you're idiots.

CFL Predictions 2011, Week 4

Back with another week of predictions and hopefully

Hamilton at BC
This is a tough one. BC has won no games, while the Cats have won one last week. The CFL is a league with a major home field advantage, so generally bad team versus bad team should mean picking the home team automatically. BC is favoured by 3.5 points. The Ticats did look like they were hitting on all cylinders. A bit of a contrarian and homer pick, I'll pick Hamilton in a close one. BC hasn't show me much at all yet.
Hamilton 27, BC 24

Winnipeg at Toronto,
The Bombers have an awesome defence and the Toronto offense led by quarterback Cleo Lemon frankly smells. I don't think either team is particularly good and the Bomber quarterback situation is pretty murky with injuries. The Argos are favoured by 3 at home. I'm going to say the Argos win, but don't cover in a low scoring game.
Toronto 17, Winnipeg 15

Edmonton at Calgary
The Eskimos are hot, winning three straight. The Stampeders have been somewhat meh with a 2 and 1 record. Calgary at home is favoured by 3 points. Seems like odds making for the CFL consists of taking the home team by three. But I digress. I don't think Edmonton is really that great and will lose a few games this year, including this one.
Calgary 35, Edmonton 29

Saskatchewan at Montreal,
Not looking good for the Riders, Saskatchewan has lost all three games, looking as bad last week in Hamilton as the average woman at last call at the Prince Edward Tavern on Barton Street on a Friday night. The Alouettes have won three straight, are favoured by 11 and are at home. They'll cover. Easily.
Montreal 43, Saskatchewan 13

CFL Players of Week By Team After Three Weeks

After three weeks of play, Montreal leads with four player of the week awards (offense, defence, special teams and top Canadian), followed by Winnipeg with three, Edmonton with two, and BC, Calgary and Hamilton with on a piece. My plan at the end of the season is to make a chart comparing team wins with player of the week awards won. My theory is that Toronto as the major media centre will end up with more awards than their wins would warrant, but so far no awards for Toronto. No Riders so far either.

CFL Rankings Week 4

1. Montreal
How many weeks was Montreal ranked number one last year. A fuck load. How many times will they be ranked number one this year. A fuck load. Playing an excretable 0 and 3 Saskatchewan at home this week, number one next week too.
2. Edmonton
I'm not sure what's happened, or if it will continue, but the Eskimos are a good team for now.
3. Calgary
The Stampeders don't seem like a great team this year, but in the land of the castrated, the one balled man is king. Plus they beat Winnipeg in a close one on the road.
4. Hamilton
This seems like a bit of a home pick, but presently the Bombers have a great defence and are on their third string quarterback going into game four. The Cat defence is good, plus the Ticats have actually scored more points than they have allowed despite a losing record. Kevin Glenn is effectively a one balled man compared to some of the quarterbacks starting this week.
5. Winnipeg
Awesome defence, no quarterback. Against half of the teams in the CFL, that's enough.
6. Toronto
Has won a game, has a credible defence. Starting Cleo "the Party" Lemon.
7. BC
Not Saskatchewn. Has built in advantage against EST teams.
8. Saskatchewan
Lose a bunch of good Canadian receivers and the wheels come off. Defence also now mediocre.

Winnipeg at Montreal Pre-Season Game Thoughts

I only watched parts of this game, since trying to watch a CFL pre-season game without your team playing it is not easy. I liked the part where they showed the Montreal Alouette cheerleaders dancing around with gian BMO credit cards, just for the crass commercialism. I'm hoping for something similar from the Ticat cheerleaders this year.

Adrian McPherson looked decent at quarterback for Montreal, which isn't good for Hamilton in case Anthony Calvillo goes down. The Alouettes appeared to have some good young import receivers. Not sure who will step up for the retired Ben Cahoon. I was also surprised to see former Ticat receiver Prechae Rodriguez playing for Montreal. I'll be curious to see if he sticks. His height can be useful, but he strikes me a s a bit one dimensional. Also Sandro DeAngelis wasn't that bad at punting from the one punt I noticed. Montreal traded a first round pick to get Sean Whyte from BC, so I'm not sure who will win out.

Winnipeg looked OK, but I still think they will be mediocre this year, with the amount of mediocrity depending on how many games Buck "the Glassman" Pierce actually plays. I say the over/under is seven.

Yet More Winnipeg Blue Bomber Finance Analysis

The CP article I linked to in my previous post on the Bombers' finances was rather scant in terms of information. There's another version of the article that has a lot more information about how Winnipeg, despite a sucky season went from a loss to a profit in 2010.

The main factor is $981,950 in severance costs, including $160,000 to the fan reviled Mike Kelly, plus varous assistants, former coach Doug Berry, plus some others. For a CFL team, signing a new coach to a three year deal and having him tank the first year is problematic, because replacing him means paying two coaching salaries for several years. However if the fans demand the coach's head, not firing him could potentially lose the team more money if the fans stay away. With player salaries closely controlled, coaching salaries, especially severances can be considerably more variable. Luckily the Bomber fans aren't demanding current coach Paul LaPolice's head after a 4 and 14 season last year, but if there's more of the same this year, what happens.

One other interesting piece of information in the article was that CFL revenue paid to the Bombers increased by $122,000. It would be interesting to find the actual total number paid to the teams for 2010, but an increase is still positive.

Staying with the Bombers, season ticket sales are already past 16,000, which is impressive for a team that was the worst in the CFL in 2010. The new stadium is probably helping out some what, plus some delusion on the part of Bomber fans that Buck Pierce will stay healthy. Interestingly I've heard no word on how Ticat sales are doing this year. If they were going fantastic, one might have expected to hear something from the Cats.

There's probably some bitterness about the stadium debacle that could take more than a year to subside. Likely the fans that buy the most tickets will keep buying, but some tickets to some angry casual fans might not get sold. Plus the fact with the Moncton game you're only getting eight home games and forced to buy a potential playoff game could also be causing some problems.

2010 Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the Black

I haven't gotten around to this story about the Bombers posting a profit of slightly over $400,000 after going a miserable 4 and 14 in 2010. According to the article, the Bombers lost over $1.2 million after going 7 and 11. What isn't stated is that the Bombers head coach in 2009 was the much loathed and much quoted Mike Kelly. Likely Bomber fans prior to the start of the 2010 season were ecstatic over the removal of Kelly and loaded up on season tickets in anticipation of a better season with Paul LaPolice at the helm.

Didn't work out that way, but at least the Bombers made a decent amount of money for such a crappy season. It probably helped the Bombers weren't bad out of the gate before Buck Pierce got injured (remember those last five words for 2011) ending up with just over 26,000 average attendance.

Here's a Winnipeg Free Press article about the Bombers' finances including news that season ticket sales are ahead by three weeks from last year (although I can't really see much optimism for next year) and increased corporate interest to boot. The Bomber loan for their new stadium seems pretty ugly, although a Grey Cup soon in the new stadium should be pretty profitable.

Bomber Scratching Post Idiocy

I'm a bit mystified by someone in the Bomber organization possibly impersonating a Ticat staffer on Drew Edward's Scratching Post blog. I'm surprised that someone was stupid enough not to post from a non-Bomber IP address. I'm also surprised that people seem to care that much about Steven Jyles.

Winnipeg looks like they could be especially poor this year, maybe even worse than last year's 4 and 14 record. Mike Kelly at least had a better record than that. Just saying.

Argos Trade With Bombers for Steven Jyles

News that the Argos have tried to rectify their Cleo Lemon quarterbacking problem by trading their first round pick (fourth overall) in the upcoming 2011 CFL draft to Winnipeg, plus a conditional pick for quarterback Steven Jyles (28, 6'1", 202 pounds). Jyles, who played at the august institution of higher learning, the Universty of Louisiana at Monroe, was 196 for 381 last year passing (61.6). Jyles threw last year for 19 TDs versus 7 picks and a 100.9 passer rating. Jyles also rushed 65 times for 452 yards for a respectable 7.0 yard average.

Winnipeg was still terrible last year with Jyles, which leaves questions for both teams. Is Jyles better than Cleo Lemon? Likely, although he's probably not that much better. Is Toronto smart trading away first round picks for immediate relief? Probably not. Is Winnipeg banking on one of the most fragile players ever to play in the CFL in quarterback Buck Pierce? Apparently so, although the fourth overall pick won't hurt. We'll see how this pans out and if Cleo "the Party" Lemon makes it out of Toronto's training camp.

CFL 2010 Attendance, Best Road Drawing Teams

Note this post has the new numbers for 2011.

So I already looked at the home attendance records for the 2010 season, but for quick reference, here's the average home attendance for each team in the CFL:

Edmonton 35025

Calgary 30715

Saskatchewan 30048

Winnipeg 26083

Montreal 25012

BC 24327

Hamilton 23890

Toronto 22069

Obviously that ranking is interesting, but what's also interesting is which team is the best road draw in the CFL (probably someone has already done this, but I'm posting it anyways). For the road game attendances of one team, subtract the average home attendance of the host team from the game's attendance, total them up and divide by the number of road games (9). This year's list was surprising apart from the obvious leader:

Saskatchewan 3506.5

Hamilton 122.21

Toronto -47.296

Calgary -313.75

Montreal -469.54

Winnipeg -1073.9

BC -1385.9

Edmonton -1558.7

Shockingly, the Hamilton Ticats were second overall and the only team besides the Saskatchewan Roughriders to post a positive average number. How did Hamilton become Canada's team? Mainly by having the first and second highest Argo attendances for 2010 (the Riders game was third). Obviously the Ticats are again a draw in Dead Ted's Dome (TM). Toronto managed to come third, mainly due to the Ticats getting more than 30,000 fans for Labour Day, way higher than the Ticat average attendance. How did Edmonton suck so hard as a road draw, besides sucking as a team in 2010? Low numbers in Toronto and Hamilton.

Also there appears to be a weak correlation between a team's record and road draw ranking, with Montreal being lower than expected and Saskatchewan and Hamilton drawing better than their rankings would warrant.

One issue with these calculations is that both Saskatchewan and Montreal sold out all their games, so the number is really based on just six or seven road games. So don't get too excited by these numbers.

Here is last year's numbers on the best road drawing teams (2009 season).

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