Cats Release Quinton Porter

Just saw on Twitter that the Cats have released Quinton Porter. Clearly the Cats lost confidence in him and he was probably going to be paid higher on the wage scale for a backup. Plus he barely played last year, with quarterback Henry Burris taking almost all the snaps en route to a last place 6 and 10 record.

Going forward, Burris is certainly not young, although not particularly injury prone either. The Cats may be OK this year, but in 2014 and the return to Ivor Wynne (or whatever it is called) things could be more problematic if the Cats haven't identified another quarterback that can start and not suck.

I'll probably say more about Porter in another post, but the now departed George Cortez' decision to almost never play Porter meant the Cats evaluation of him would not be ideal.

Where will Porter end up? Winnipeg could be a possibility, considering how often Buck Pierce is injured.

Going for Two in the CFL. How Likely?

Slate has an article about when teams in the NFL should go for a two point convert. From the article, "NFL teams have a 47.9 percent success rate on two-point conversions." What's the CFL success rate when going for two? Higher or lower than the NFL? I'm inclined to say higher, although I don't have a lot of evidence. Maybe the passing completion percentage is higher in the CFL. Certainly the end zones are way larger so that has to help.

What if it turns out that the percentage is higher than 50%? Should teams always go for two? What if your team has a good offense and the other team has a bad defence? Should that affect the choice? I doubt CFL coaches would always go for two, but something to think about.

Cats Hire Orlando Steinauer as New Defensive Co-Ordinator

Interesting pick. Spent the last three years as the Argos defensive backs coach and the Argos won the Grey Cup, a lot of that done with a good defence. Steinauer was a former Cats player, which makes for a good story. In 2012, Hamilton's defence sucked and a lot of that was secondary issues (although the front four was in no way good either).

I have no major problems with this choice. Hamilton's talent on defence wasn't great, but certainly schemes were a part of the bad performance. One could argue the Cats should have gone with a known commodity like former defensive co-ordinator Greg Marshall, but I'm cautiously optimistic. The Cats were last year, so it shouldn't be hard to do better in Guelph in 2013. Also I'm glad the pick is done relatively early rather than letting it drag on closer to the start of the season.

Fourth Down Should You Go For It NFL Web App

I saw a post on Hacker News about a big tranche of NFL play data being released on the web. Interesting. However in the comments I saw a link to a web app with that shows whether your NFL team should go for it on fourth down, given your yards required for a first down and the yard line you are on.

I would love to make one for the CFL for going on third down. Obviously there's some differences for the CFL. Lining up one yard off the ball for defences means one yard or less attempts are a lot easier in the CFL. Kicking field goals with posts at the front of the end zone rather than the end adjusts the possibility of getting points from field goals. Plus a lot of other factors.

For the Ticats of 2012, with a great offence and a terrible defence, I wonder if the Cats should have went more on third down. They certainly should have thrown the challenge flag more often.

Cats Signing Kent Austin Thoughts

First I'm a little surprised, considering the Austin rumours were out there, but I thought it would be hard to get him to come back to the CFL. Offering the dual coach GM role was probably required to get him to come and also saves money for the Cats having to pay both positions while they are still paying former head coach George Cortez.

I'm positive towards Austin, although I don't think he is a panacea. I'm sure he also has offensive knowledge similar to Cortez although I'm sure he will hire an offensive co-ordinator. However with either Cortez or Austin next year the Cats need a defensive co-ordinator plus an upgrade in talent to be competitive next year.

Three coaches in three different years isn't a lot of continuity.

I'm sure I'll have more to say soon. After Cortez was gone, Austin was probably one of the best options. The Cats could certainly have done worse.

Cats Relieve George Cortez of Duties as Head Coach

Whoa. Just read on the official CFL twitter feed (@CFL) that the Cats have relieved Cortez from coach and director of football operations.

Didn't see that one coming, although considering the team finished last in the league despite decent talent, it wasn't like there was some justification. I just thought that the offense had good enough stats (Cortez' speciality) that the team would concentrate on the defence during the off-season and go from there. Maybe them going on the road in Guelph has something to do with it who knows. No idea who the next coach will be. 

Grey Cup 2013 Odds

Yes getting them out early for the 101st Grey Cup in Regina. This is as of now, obviously before a lot of free agent action

1. BC Lions
Sure the Lions flamed out at home in the West final to Drew Tate, but they do have arguably the best quarterback in Travis Lulay who is relatively young by CFL starter standards. They also have Canadian running back Andrew Harris who excels at both running and receiving. Lions receivers Bruce and Simon are getting pretty long in the tooth and may not be worth the money their contracts are currently at. The Lions have some decent non-import receiver talent and Buono is a good enough of a GM to find some decent imports if he releases one or both of Bruce and Simon. The defence was good too this year. Their could be some issues with NFL tryouts, but the Lions are stable enough for that to really not matter. 25% 4 to 1

2. Calgary Stampeders
Sure they flamed out in the Grey Cup, but they won two playoff games and Toronto will soon revert to the mean next season and odds are they won't be as hot at the end as 2012. We'll assume for now that Drew Tate will return next year from injury and won't become the second coming of Buck Pierce. They still have Glenn, although as the Grey Cup showed, he can be inconsistent. They have the best running back and a non-import to boot in Jon Cornish, plus a clutch first down receiver in Nik Lewis. Expect the offense to be pretty potent again next year. 16%

3. Toronto Argonauts
The Argos will still have Ricky Ray, although injury problems to him could derail Toronto at any time. The Argos defence will probably still be strong with the likes of non-import Foley and and import Flemons although we may have seen the last of the Kissing Bandit Adriano Belli. Chad Owens might revert to the mean a little bit, but he's been consistently over 3,000 yards for several years now. Durie is actually a reasonable non-import receiver and Kackert is a decent running back although injuries could cause problems next year. Will success spoil the Argos, in the form of a lot of previously unknown guys wanting to be paid more? Maybe although some might want to stay for less money. Scott Milanovich has turned out to be a very good CFL head coach. 15%

4. Montreal Alouettes
Anthony Calvillo looks to be coming back, but is even older and the increasing likelihood of him decreasing in ability is reason enough to have Montreal at four. GM Jim Popp seems to have no real problem finding import offensive talent and the Alouette offensive line will be strong and relatively Canadian, freeing up spots for imports at other positions. The defense wasn't as good as some of the Alouettes ones over the past decade, but it was reasonable considering the Alouettes have a consistent offense. If Calvillo gets injured,  Montreal will have lost its safety blanket. 14%

5. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
The Cats certainly won't have the defence next year to be higher on the list, but it will likely improve as defensive co-ordinator Casey Creehan has decamped to Winnipeg and new free agents and newcomer imports replace those that proved not up to snuff last year. The Cat offense was great, albeit inconsistent last year and Henry Burris' stats were fantastic especially for a 6 and 12 team. The Cat offense is relatively set for another good season, although whether running back Avon Cobourne returns is a question. One negative for the offense is that backup quarterback Quinton Porter may depart, robbing the Cats of some depth in case Burris goes down, although Porter barely played at all last year except for sneaks. 12%

6. Saskatchewan Rough Riders
The Riders still have some decent talent, but they still would need to get past both BC and Calgary and then beat the East team to win the Grey Cup, barring some cross-over wackiness. Darian Durant improved from a subpar 2011 in 2012, but the team most fanned down the stretch and in their playoff game. Weston Dressler is still a talent and they have home field advantage in more places than their home field, but nothing really says the Riders will be great next year. 11%

7. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
I don't have much confidence in the Bombers next year. Assuming they don't jettison Buck Pierce, they'll go as far as he go without being injured, which isn't very far. I also don't have much confidence in new defensive co-ordinator Casey Creehan, but I may be biased as a Hamilton fan. The Bomber defence wasn't much in 2012 anyways, so I suppose there's a chance it could improve. 4%

8. Edmonton Eskimos
Sure they made the playoffs, which is something, but they booted Eric Tillman as GM before the playoffs started which says something. Lost the Ricky Ray trade and received magic beans/Steven Jyles in return. Have a logjam of good running backs, which is something, but not what Grey Cups are made of. Rebuilding year. 3%