The Cats are at least within five points after a late safety. Probably the turning point of the half was early when Boudreaux was flagged for the weakest horse collar tackle penalty that should have been a sack on Lulay deep in BC territory. At least later in the game the penalties seemed to go more Hamilton's way.
The Hamilton offense was putrid in the first quarter, with no first downs, but the defence at least played well and limited the damage. Not much of a running game. Also teams in the CFL may have figured out that when LeFevour comes in that a running play is going to happen. Good while it lasted.
Burris ended up with a decent completion percentage in the half, although part of that was typical Hamilton short passes that were no where near the first down marker.
Bulcke is having a good game in the interior of the defensive line for Hamilton. Why Calgary got rid of him (or at least didn't resign him) after two years is a mystery to me. A non-import, Bulcke majored in mechanical engineering at Stanford. I'm not sure who was the last good non-import defensive tackle the Cats have had.
Friday, August 30, 2013
2013 CFL Predictions Week 10
Hamilton at BC
Eastern teams haven't traditionally done well playing in BC at night (and BC almost always has night games). Injury wise the Cats are going to be missing Sam Giguere due to an arm injury and replace him with vet non-import Dave Stala. The Cats have enough slotbacks and receivers that that isn't a big deal. However, despite Hamilton winning three in a row, I'm going to go with BC due to their home field advantage.
BC 29 Hamilton 24
Winnipeg at Saskatchewan
One team has one win, one team has one loss. The Riders are at home to boot, and I have no idea who is going to start at quarterback for Winnipeg, nor do I have a lot of confidence in new offensive co-ordinator Marcel Bellefeuille to turn it around. I predict that Corey Sheets is going to run wild over the Bombers in pursuit of 2000 yards rushing this year. It won't be close.
Riders 40 Bombers 19
Edmonton at Calgary
The Eskimos have improved the last couple of weeks, and I do see a possibility of them splitting the home and home series. However this game is at home for Calgary and I don't see them losing it. Kevin Glenn has looked good in replacement of the oft injured Drew Tate (who seems to be morphing into the new Buck Pierce), although not having receiver Nik Lewis hurts. Edmonton will win eventually, just not this week.
Stampeders 29 Eskimos 22
Montreal at Toronto
Ricky Ray is out with injury and so is Anthony Calvillo. So it is the battle of the backup quarterbacks. Zach Collaros has more (although not much) experience than Montreal's Tanner Marsh, who played well last week in the Alouette's victory. I'll take the slightly more experienced Collaros and home field advantage.
Toronto 22 Montreal 19
Eastern teams haven't traditionally done well playing in BC at night (and BC almost always has night games). Injury wise the Cats are going to be missing Sam Giguere due to an arm injury and replace him with vet non-import Dave Stala. The Cats have enough slotbacks and receivers that that isn't a big deal. However, despite Hamilton winning three in a row, I'm going to go with BC due to their home field advantage.
BC 29 Hamilton 24
Winnipeg at Saskatchewan
One team has one win, one team has one loss. The Riders are at home to boot, and I have no idea who is going to start at quarterback for Winnipeg, nor do I have a lot of confidence in new offensive co-ordinator Marcel Bellefeuille to turn it around. I predict that Corey Sheets is going to run wild over the Bombers in pursuit of 2000 yards rushing this year. It won't be close.
Riders 40 Bombers 19
Edmonton at Calgary
The Eskimos have improved the last couple of weeks, and I do see a possibility of them splitting the home and home series. However this game is at home for Calgary and I don't see them losing it. Kevin Glenn has looked good in replacement of the oft injured Drew Tate (who seems to be morphing into the new Buck Pierce), although not having receiver Nik Lewis hurts. Edmonton will win eventually, just not this week.
Stampeders 29 Eskimos 22
Montreal at Toronto
Ricky Ray is out with injury and so is Anthony Calvillo. So it is the battle of the backup quarterbacks. Zach Collaros has more (although not much) experience than Montreal's Tanner Marsh, who played well last week in the Alouette's victory. I'll take the slightly more experienced Collaros and home field advantage.
Toronto 22 Montreal 19
Thursday, August 29, 2013
Chris Williams' Ticat Contract Voided
Just saw that Chris Williams' contract with the Ticats was voided by a judge. Somewhat surprising, although it is pretty late for him to try and pickup with an NFL team.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Ticats Have Released DE Greg Peach
The Cats have released injury prone defensive end Greg Peach (just saw it on Twitter). In hindsight, Peach was clearly a bad signing as he was often injured. I'm assuming the Cats are releasing him now, so that they don't have to pay him the rest of the year (in the CFL, after Labour Day, three year vets have to be paid their full salary upon release).
Will someone else pick him up? Given his injury history, I'm doubtful. He isn't very old at 26, but obviously isn't durable. Someone could pick him up near the end of the season I suppose for the playoffs.
Will someone else pick him up? Given his injury history, I'm doubtful. He isn't very old at 26, but obviously isn't durable. Someone could pick him up near the end of the season I suppose for the playoffs.
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
2012 CFL Home and Away Points Stats
I've loaded in the 2012 home and away points for the CFL regular season and did some analysis on them. This could be useful for over under gambling, but is interesting to me beyond that.
The mean away points scored was 23.6 points a game versus 28.2 points for home teams, or a total points for both teams of 51.8 points per game.
The mean margin of victory in points was 11.9 versus a median margin of victory of 9 points, which was actually larger than I would have thought it would be. The largest margin of victory was 52 points. I should really look up what game that was. There were five games where a single point made the difference.
I did make a histogram of the margin of victory. Note that three points is the most popular.
The mean away points scored was 23.6 points a game versus 28.2 points for home teams, or a total points for both teams of 51.8 points per game.
The mean margin of victory in points was 11.9 versus a median margin of victory of 9 points, which was actually larger than I would have thought it would be. The largest margin of victory was 52 points. I should really look up what game that was. There were five games where a single point made the difference.
I did make a histogram of the margin of victory. Note that three points is the most popular.
Monday, August 26, 2013
2013 CFL Power Rankings Week 9
1. Saskatchewan Rough Riders
Well it was a tight game against Edmonton, but the Riders still prevailed. You're not always going to win by big margins every game and the Riders still have one loss. The Riders still have an excellent offense with depth at receiver and the best running back in Kory Sheets. Plus going in to back to back games against the hapless Bombers, this ranking probably won't change.
2. Calgary Stampeders
The Stamps aren't very far off of the top ranking and coming off a solid victory over Toronto (albeit without Ricky Ray for a lot of the game) their position is solidified. Kevin Glenn has been solid and one wonders where Drew Tate ends up on the depth chart when he finally comes back, whenever that is. The Stamps still managed to win without both Jon Cornish and Nik Lewis which shows impressive depth. Back to back games against Edmonton shouldn't be a big problem.
3. Toronto Argonauts
They lost to the Stamps without Ricky Ray for a large period of the game. The Argos are still a good team, with decent receivers and a good defence, but with Ricky Ray looking more injury prone, the Argos aren't as good a team.
4. BC Lions
Somehow the Lions managed to cough one up in Montreal despite having a big lead. The Lions are a good team and Lulay is one of the better quarterbacks, but the Lions haven't really been dominant this year. Still Lulay has been healthy this year, which should help the Lions in the second half of the year.
5. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Three wins in a row against the worst teams in the league doesn't say a lot, although the wins were fairly dominant. The Cats are back even at 4 and 4, but the team will have to beat better teams to move up in the rankings. They have already played the Bombers three times and the Eskimos twice. The Cats offense is hot right now, with Andy Fantuz back and a plethora of offensive options to chose from and even Gable looks good as a running back. The Cats have managed to work in backup LeFevour into the past few games to some success.
6. Montreal Alouettes
I watched the Alouettes and didn't think they had a chance, but they confounded me and beat the Lions at home. The backup quarterback to Calvillo Neiswander didn't do much, but the third stringer Marsh managed to win the game. Chip Cox has been a monster on defence this year, with way more tackles than anyone else in the league. Non-import back Messam is coming back to the form he had in Edmonton and Arland Bruce is on fire despite getting up there in age. The Alouettes could be a better team with quarterbacking better than whan Calvillo had been giving them prior to getting his bell rung.
7. Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton doesn't have many wins lately, but they have improved enough to almost beat the Riders last week. Unlike the Bombers, the Eskimos have stayed with one quarterback, Mike Reilly who managed just over 300 yards passing this week. The Eskimos still have Fred Stamps as a capable receiver. Edmonton will probably have a better record over the rest of the season, but they still aren't a great team. They aren't Winnipeg though.
8. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
This team is in total disarray, with a new president, GM and offensive co-ordinator. The Bombers played three quarterbacks against Hamilton last week without any success. The defence isn't terrible, but the offense hangs them out to dry. The Bombers ideally would jettison Buck Pierce and commit to their younger quarterbacks for next year. Barring a miracle, they aren't making the playoffs this year.
Well it was a tight game against Edmonton, but the Riders still prevailed. You're not always going to win by big margins every game and the Riders still have one loss. The Riders still have an excellent offense with depth at receiver and the best running back in Kory Sheets. Plus going in to back to back games against the hapless Bombers, this ranking probably won't change.
2. Calgary Stampeders
The Stamps aren't very far off of the top ranking and coming off a solid victory over Toronto (albeit without Ricky Ray for a lot of the game) their position is solidified. Kevin Glenn has been solid and one wonders where Drew Tate ends up on the depth chart when he finally comes back, whenever that is. The Stamps still managed to win without both Jon Cornish and Nik Lewis which shows impressive depth. Back to back games against Edmonton shouldn't be a big problem.
3. Toronto Argonauts
They lost to the Stamps without Ricky Ray for a large period of the game. The Argos are still a good team, with decent receivers and a good defence, but with Ricky Ray looking more injury prone, the Argos aren't as good a team.
4. BC Lions
Somehow the Lions managed to cough one up in Montreal despite having a big lead. The Lions are a good team and Lulay is one of the better quarterbacks, but the Lions haven't really been dominant this year. Still Lulay has been healthy this year, which should help the Lions in the second half of the year.
5. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Three wins in a row against the worst teams in the league doesn't say a lot, although the wins were fairly dominant. The Cats are back even at 4 and 4, but the team will have to beat better teams to move up in the rankings. They have already played the Bombers three times and the Eskimos twice. The Cats offense is hot right now, with Andy Fantuz back and a plethora of offensive options to chose from and even Gable looks good as a running back. The Cats have managed to work in backup LeFevour into the past few games to some success.
6. Montreal Alouettes
I watched the Alouettes and didn't think they had a chance, but they confounded me and beat the Lions at home. The backup quarterback to Calvillo Neiswander didn't do much, but the third stringer Marsh managed to win the game. Chip Cox has been a monster on defence this year, with way more tackles than anyone else in the league. Non-import back Messam is coming back to the form he had in Edmonton and Arland Bruce is on fire despite getting up there in age. The Alouettes could be a better team with quarterbacking better than whan Calvillo had been giving them prior to getting his bell rung.
7. Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton doesn't have many wins lately, but they have improved enough to almost beat the Riders last week. Unlike the Bombers, the Eskimos have stayed with one quarterback, Mike Reilly who managed just over 300 yards passing this week. The Eskimos still have Fred Stamps as a capable receiver. Edmonton will probably have a better record over the rest of the season, but they still aren't a great team. They aren't Winnipeg though.
8. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
This team is in total disarray, with a new president, GM and offensive co-ordinator. The Bombers played three quarterbacks against Hamilton last week without any success. The defence isn't terrible, but the offense hangs them out to dry. The Bombers ideally would jettison Buck Pierce and commit to their younger quarterbacks for next year. Barring a miracle, they aren't making the playoffs this year.
Saturday, August 24, 2013
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