2014 CFL East and West Semi-Final Predictions

So it's playoff time in the CFL. I've waited until just before game time to make my predictions, not because I wanted the most info, but because I'm lazy.

BC at Montreal
The Lions cross-over from the West with a 9 and 9 record, the same as the Alouettes (and the Ticats). The Alouettes could have avoided this game by losing by less than seven in Hamilton last week, but they've been hot, going 7 and 2 in the second half. The Lions were 4 and 5 in the last half of the season and all those victories were over the Bombers and the REDBLACKS. So there's that.

There's rumours that quarterback Travis Lulay could play and he isn't on the injured list, but I don't expect him to be a factor. More troubling for BC of late has been running back Andrew Harris being on the six game injured list.

The game is outside in Montreal which I think benefits the Alouettes although running back Brandon Whitaker is injured. The Als are only favoured by three points which is pretty much the average spread for a home team in the CFL, indicating the teams are evenly matched.

BC has in the past won a cross-over game (with Casey Printers at quarterback over Hamilton), but I think Montreal wins this in a close one due to their better defence.
Alouettes 22 Lions 17

Saskatchewan at Edmonton
If quarterback Mike Reilly wasn't injured, the Eskimos would have to be favoured over the Riders without Darian Durant. Instead we have a battle of backup quarterbacks in Edmonton.

Edmonton has been the better team, especially of late when the Riders have been terrible after Durant went down with an elbow injury. The Riders have gone so far as to resurrect Kerry Joseph's career (at least they didn't call Michael Bishop) and he starts this game over Tino Sunseri who himself has mostly been crap.

The Eskimos go with backup Matt Nichols who has mostly been mediocre and certainly isn't Reilly.

Both teams have decent running games, Saskatchewan relying on it heavily even with Durant healthy early in the year. Mid-November in Edmonton probably isn't going to be great weather wise, and with backups aplenty don't expect the air game to do much.

Last I checked the Eskimos were favoured by seven at home. I still think they will win, but this game is more interesting with Reilly hurt. There will likely be a lot of Rider fans in the stands, but it won't make much difference.

Eskimos 19 Riders 15

BC at Hamilton Picture

A shot of Tim Horton's Field last night during the Cats win against the Lions. 

Will the Upper West Stands Be Ready for the October 4th Game Against the Lions? No.

I had been thinking about whether the Upper West stands (where my season tickets are) would be ready for the next home game against BC on October 4th. I was guessing no, as that seems to be the smart way to bet when it comes to the stadium. Sure enough I checked my email today and yesterday I received an email from the Ticats saying it wouldn't be ready (or at least not guaranteed) plus an offer for two more free tickets. So huzzah for free tickets and boo for not having the stadium done.

Will the stadium be complete for the end of the regular season? For a home playoff game? Who knows. I know which way I'm betting.

Alouettes Troy Smith Honks in BC

I didn't see the game in Vancouver last night and didn't even know anything about it until I saw this tweet from @fenderguy69: Was Troy Smith's outing last night the worst "good conditions" QB performance ever? 29% CompAvg. 2.6 Yards/Attempt. 13.1 QB Rating. I went and looked up the stats in BC's 41 to 5 victory over Montreal, and sure enough Smith had five completions off 17 attempts (that 29% completion average) for 43 yards. And an interception. And he ran once for a yard. Wow. I think it is time for Montreal to shutdown the Smith NFL retread experiment. No catches for Chad Johnson, but one for eight yards for Dave Stala.

CFL Predictions Week 4 Part B

Edmonton at BC
The Lions are only favoured by 8.5 at home, which seems a bit charitable. Sure The Eskimos waxed the Bombers like the Kardashian sisters at half price day at the beauty salon, but the Lions aren't the Bombers. Steven Jyles versus Travis Lulay? I'll take the Lions, unsurprisingly.
Lions 35, Eskimos 25

Montreal at Hamilton
Both teams are coming off victories at home, although the Alouettes were pretty much gifted a victory by Kevin Glenn. The Cats looked great in the first half, and pretty mediocre against the Argos in the second half. The Cats had awesome special teams, with reigning CFL Rookie of the Year Chris Williams making two special teams TDs. The Alouettes have some good weapons to surround Anthony Calvillo. The Cats are favoured by a mere two points at home. I'll go with the home team, considering the success CFL home teams have had this year.
Ticats 29 Alouettes 27

Hamilton at BC, Quick Preview

A few changes from last week's Ticat lineup. Hage is in on the offensive line. On the lineup chart, the receivers are the same as last week and Walker is listed over Cobourne as the running back. Walker had a decent week last week, with seven runs for 132 yards and a TD and three catches for 36 yards. Williams had a great game with nine catches for 109 yards.

Changes on the defensive line. Boudreaux is gone as a defensive end, McElveen moves from the inside to one of the end spots with Crable back as the other end. Rose is still listed as starting in the middle with Brown elevated to starter as well. The line got OK pressure last week, but Durant seemed to slip away multiple times when a sack would have really helped. Lions quarterback Lulay isn't quite as elusive as Durant (although he certainly isn't Danny Mac running either), but is a better passer.

For the linebackers, import Knowlton is back with non-import Eiben as a reserve. Williams had a monster game last week with nine tackles and one sack.

The secondary is the same, with non-import rookie Bucknor still one of the corners. Will BC go after him? Maybe.

Bartel and Congi are back as punter and kicker. Conger was three for three, but Bartel's punting average was only 34.4 yards, which isn't very good.

Lulay didn't have a great week passing against the Bombers last week, going 17 for 24 for 33 yards with a TD and one pick. He did run for 44 yards on 8 attempts with 2 TDs. That will be problematic on the Cats. Hopefully the linebackers will do something about that. Non-import Harris had a big day with 8 runs for 44 yards combined with 7 reception for 69 yards. Simon had yet another good day in the CFL, setting the receiving record with five catches for 105 yards.

Cats are in tough and will need some breaks to go their way (ie turnovers).

CFL 2012 Predictions, Week 2, Part A

Winnipeg at Montreal
Battle of the winless teams! Last I checked, the Alouettes are favoured by 7 at home, which seems a bit large considered they got their asses handed to them in Calgary last week. I assume Buck Pierce isn't playing for the Bombers this week due to yet another injury. Alex Brink isn't bad, but he isn't Anthony Calvillo.

The Bomber defence is still decent and looked OK against BC last week. The Alouette defence is rebuilding. I'll take Montreal, but they won't make the spread.
Alouettes 25, Bombers 20

Hamilton at BC
Oh Hamilton. Going into the season, things seemed so positive. Now you're 0 and 1 and heading into Vancouver as 8 point underdogs. The Cats looked OK in the first half last week and then as the game got away from them looked worse and worse versus the Riders. BC looked good last week from the parts I watched. Hamilton has bizarrely had success playing on the west coast the past few years, but I wouldn't bet on it in this case.

Adding veteran non-import receiver Dave Stala to the starting lineup and removing veteran non-import linebacker Kevin Eiben and replacing him with import Markeith Knowlton could help, but it probably won't be enough. Expect it to be close at the half and then the Lions to pull away.
Pot People 35, Ticats 21

CFL 2012 Predictions, Week 1, Part A

Saskatchewan at Hamilton,
You never really know what teams are going to be like before the season starts. The Riders will probably not be good. I won't say there will be terrible, like 3 and 15 terrible, but I doubt they will be 500. The Cats should have a good enough offense to carry them this year.

That said, I'm pretty sure the Cats will take this one. They are at home, looked good in the pre-season when Burris was at the controls and the Riders were poor during the pre-season and lost Fantuz to the Ticats. Current Vegas odds are the Cats by 7.

Ticats 27, Fantuzless People 18

Winnipeg at BC
BC is coming off a Grey Cup win, playing at home, looked like they were going to lose some players to the NFL and then didn't and have the best quarterback. The Bombers didn't do much of anything in the off-season and don't have ratio breaker Doug Brown to stuff the middle anymore. And their starting running back just exploded his Achilles. Current line is the Lions by 7.5.

Buck Pierce could have a monster game or get injured. You just don't know. I'm going with the Lions.

Left Coast People 23, Mosquito People 16