Ticats Win!

It was close but the Cats won a road victory in Edmonton. Not sure whether it was 30 to 29 or 28. Props to Samuel Giguere with six catches for 90 yards. Also props to Gable with 14 rushes for 47 yards. Decent pass rush too. 

2013 CFL Week 6 Predictions.

Hamilton at Edmonton
Battle of the 1 and 4 teams. Edmonton won the first encounter in Guelph. I probably should bet on the Esks at home, however I think that the Burris will probably have a good game and the defense won't do too badly. That may be a bit of bias, but the team is bad, not completely bad. Still not having Fantuz back really hurts.
Tiger-Cats 29 Eskimos 22

Winnipeg at BC
BC lost pretty badly to Toronto in Toronto, so I'm sure they'll want to avenge that lose. The Lions are significantly better at home than on the road in history. The Bombers have at least moved on from Buck Pierce to Goltz which is something. He'll have a hard time outgunning Lulay though.
Lions 35 Bombers 21

2013 CFL Predictions Week 1

Montreal at Winnipeg
The Bombers have their new stadium open and home field advantage so that's something. Buck Pierce is also not injured yet which is also something. But Winnipeg just isn't much of a team. Anthony Calvillo is also not injured yet, however the Alouettes no longer have Marc Trestman as coach anymore. I still like the weapons Calvillo has at his disposal and that should be enough.
Alouettes 26 Bombers 19

Hamilton at Toronto
For a lot of Hamilton fans, getting to Toronto is easier than Guelph. The GO bus from downtown runs quite frequently. So there may be a lot of Cat fans in attendance and the Argos have never been a great draw. Both teams have veteran quarterbacks that should be in decent form in the first game in the season. The Argos are coming off a Grey Cup, while the Cats were the worst team in the league. Against a bit worse opponent or at home I would have picked the Cats, but missing Chris Williams at receiver and as a returner will hurt.
Argos 24 Cats 18

BC at Calgary
I think the Lions are the best team entering the season and Drew Tate hasn't really shown he's a great CFL quarterback. Until I see evidence to the contrary, I'm picking BC, even on the road.

Lions 28 Stamps 26

Saskatchewan at Edmonton
Veteran quarterback Darian Durrant for the Riders versus that guy who's not Matt Nichols and has a functioning ACL for Edmonton. Durrant has certainly been, to quote a Katy Perry song title, Hot and Cold over the pass few years, but early in the season, his experience and running ability if he gets in trouble will be the edge over some guy I can't be bothered to look the name up of and probably wouldn't be starting if Nichols hadn't blown out his knee doing basically nothing my 70 year mother doesn't do in her aerobics class.

Riders 31 Edmonton 29

Eskimos at Cats Game Day Thoughts

Is this a must win game for the Cats with eight games remaining. Mathematically no, but the Cats have a decent shot playing Edmonton at home with the rather crotchety Kerry Joseph at the controls. With Winnipeg losing already this week, a win would get the Cats two games up on the Bombers and probably more importantly another win in their battle against the Riders for the crossover playoff spot.
Potentially if the Riders get hot the Esks could be a crossover possibility as well, so beating the Esks is potentially doubly important.

The Esks have also lost back to back games against the Stamps. The Cats have lost five straight so neither team can claim much momentum. The Cats have lost some close games although last week the Argos pulled away in the fourth quarter.

The Cats still have injury issues. Hage is apparently gone at centre for the season, but O'Neill hasn't been really been an issue as a replacement. Knowlton is still missing at linebacker which hurts due to his ability to make big plays, something the defence has been lacking this year.

The Cats strength this year has been their offence. To win this game and their remaining games the Cats are going to have to score enough points to compensate for their rather woeful defence. That's somewhat obvious. What the Cats should do knowing this is go for it on third down more often to keep drives alive and keep the Cat defence off the field. Sure there will be failures, but statistically the Cats should be going for it always on third and two or less. Porter also has to step on quarterback sneaks. Last year they were a strength, this year not so much.

I'm not sure what the Cats can do about their front defensive four. Certainly bringing in new personnel like the trade this week for Peguese and seeing who can play is one thing the Cats can do. People argue that sacks are an overrated stat, but the Cats are dead last in the CFL in sacks by a rather large margin and probably not coincidentally are 3 and 7. More blitzing? Probably easier said than done and the Cat secondary isn't anything to write home about this year, although considering they are starting two Canadians isn't terrible.

Cobourne is starting again at running back according to the online depth chart. He doesn't have blazing speed, but he is good as a receiver. Hopefully Burris uses him today.

The Curious Case of Cory Boyd

So the Argos have released Cory Boyd. I think this Damien Cox article in the Star pretty much hits the nail on the head in terms of reasoning: with performance bonuses quarterback Ricky Ray will make a lot money and cause salary cap problems. Cox doesn't mention it, but likely Boyd had performance bonuses based on set yardage totals so releasing him halfway through the season gets rid of more than his base salary as his totals are good this year. Also after I believe nine games CFL veterans are guaranteed their full salary even if released, so Boyd had to go quick.

Ticats fans should pay attention to what happens with sitting veteran running back Avon Cobourne. Likely his contract has performance bonuses, which he obviously isn't hitting so maybe he won't be released before the nine game mark as insurance in case Chevon Walker goes down.

Chad Kackert the new starting Toronto running back has actually struck me as a fairly decent player, thus illustrating my mantra that in the CFL, import running backs are fungible commodities. Also with Ricky Ray as quarterback, rather than a stiff like Cleo Lemon, passing is going to come to the fore and the Argos don't have to lean on their running backs as much.

Not sure how great a pickup this is for the Esks, but he is a good back. I'm shocked the Eskimos are a 4 and 2 this year, but apart from Winnipeg, it has been a weird year of parity in the CFL. I think the salary cap is finally starting to really kick in in the CFL this year. If you've spent a lot on your quarterback, his teammates are going to be smellier.

CFL Predictions 2011, Week 7: 1 and 5 Teams Sally Forth

Edmonton at Montreal
The Eskimos are 5 and 1 versus the Alouettes 4 and 2. Two pertinent facts, Montreal is at home and probably the best receiver in the CFL Fred Stamps is out with internal bleeding for the Esks. The Alouettes aren't as good as they were in previous years, but they're still pretty good, especially when a team isn't on the top of its game. Unsurprisingly the Als are favoured by 6.5
NDP People 35, Mall People 19

Calgary at Saskatchewan
The Stamps are 4 and 2 and coming off a victory. The Riders are 1 and 5 and lost last week to the previously winless Lions. Stamps are favoured by 3.5 on the road, which means no one has real confidence in the Riders. I thought the Riders would be worse this year, but not this bad. Greg Marshall, I fear your head coaching career will be short, shorter than the other Greg Marshall.
Stetson People 29, Potash People 19

Toronto at Hamilton
Hamilton is favoured by a relatively massive 7 points at home against the 1 and 5 Argos. The Cats played well last week in the first half and then sucked and were shut out in the second half. The Argos mostly sucked last week and sucked more as the game went on and then fired their defensive co-ordinator when their offense sucks. I've heard rumours that Boyd is back this week at running back for the Argos this week, but I'm too lazy to check it. Ticats still win.
Timmies People 30, Suck People 24

Winnipeg at BC
Winnipeg is so hot that the players have dubbed themselves Swaggerville, no doubt to move as many T-shirts as possible. BC is 1 and 5 and beat the Riders last week. Buck Pierce is currently uninjured and the Bombers have a lethal defence. Lulay is becoming better for the Lions (certainly better than Cleo Lemon), but he'll be running for his life this week.
33 Jets People, 22 Rain People

Buck Pierce Finishes Game Uninjured! Also Winnipeg Beats Edmonton 28 to 16

I watched the second half of the Bomber Eskimo game and was amazed that Buck Pierce finished the game. The Bombers defensive line was impressive. Eskimos are suddenly not looking that great. Barely beat Toronto last week and basically needed some bizarre timekeeping at half-time to stay in the game. Basically this year looks like East is way better than the West, which historically has been pretty rare.

CFL Week 3 Predictions

My weekly predictions are back, but I didn't have time to do last night's game. Too bad since I was thinking of saying the Bombers would cover, but still lose. Then I would have looked like Nostradamus.

Toronto at Montreal
Last I checked Montreal is favoured by ten. That seems generous to Toronto, but the Argos defence is pretty good. Considering how the Alouettes have rolled early in season, I can't see things changing. Alouettes get a reasonable lead going into the second half and then expand it.
Alouettes 32, Argos 16

Sasktchewan at Hamilton
The Ticats are favoured by 2.5 points at home, which since home teams are generally favoured by 3 points, means on a neutral field Saskatchewan is the slghtly better team. Arland Bruce or whatever you want to call him is out and Marquay McDaniel is back catching balls. Considering Bruce has caught four balls in two games, that's not as concerning as it would be normally. Chris Getzlaf is supposed to be back in as an import receiver for the Riders, which is good for them considering they don't have non-import receivers Fantuz or Bagg available. This could be construed as a homer pick, but I don't think the Cats are that bad to lose three games in a row early on.
Ticats 27, Riders 20

BC at Edmonton
The 2-0 Eskimos are only favoured by 2.5 points at home against the 0-2 Lions. I don't think that's fair to the Eskimos, but I'm going to go against the grain and go with the Lions. I've become less and less impressed with Kavis Reed's coaching abilities over the years; to me he's a good example of failing upwards. Buono isn't the superstar coach he once was, but he's no Bart Andrus.
Lions 25, Edmonton 23

Ticats at Eskimos, Lineup Run Through

Again, I can't watch the game, but obviously hope the Ticats don't open the season 0 and 2. I've seen how that plays out and it isn't pretty. Especially with the Winnipeg "the Real Deal" Blue Bombers going 2 and 0. I'm going to keep calling them "the Real Deal" until they lose.

The offensive line is the same as last week, imports at tackle, Simmons and Jimenez, non-imports at guard, Dyakowski and Rottier and also at centre with Hage. Hopefully he gets the snap count right this week.

One change at receiver, import Chris Williams is in after the other new guy got injured. Is Marquay McDaniel even still on the team or injured? I have no clue and I'm leaving that as an exercise to the reader. Import Bruce is the other receiver. Hopefully he catches more than two passes this week and doesn't get any stupid penalties. Mann and non-import Stala are back as the slots.

Glenn is back at quarterback, with Cobourne as the running back and Darcy Brown as the fullback. That's five Canadian starters on offense.

The defensive line is the same as last week, Baggs and Hickman at end, and Smith and non-import Steele plugging the middle.

Linebackers are again the same. Knowlton, Williams and Johnson.

Corners again are non-import Hinds and Young. Dennis and Thomas are the half-backs and Shivers is the safety. Two Canadians on defence.

Medlock punts and kicks.

For Edmonton on the offensive line, Coston an import is the left tackle and non-import Wojt is the right tackle, differing from the Cats dual import scheme. Kabongo and Mac grad Koch are the guards and Fiacconni is the centre.

Henry and non-import Nowacki are the wide receivers, with Stamps and Bowman the slots. Porter (who?) is the running back with non-import Betrand as the fullback. That's six Canadians on offense.

On defence the Eskimos are listed as using a 3-4 scheme. Peach and Sykes are the ends, with former Argo draft pick Legare as the nose tackle (I'm too lazy to put in the accents).

Munoz and Hill are the outside linebackers (I think). Davis and Sherritt are in the middle.

Williams and Bradley are the two corners. Brown and former Ticat Thompson are the defensive halfbacks. Alexander is the non-import safety. That's two Canadian starters on defence and eight total, one more than the minimum.

Import and former Alouette Duval punts and kicks.

Edmonton Eskimos Release Kamau Peterson and Jared Zabranksy

Well turns out the Eskimos not inviting quarterback Jared Zabransky to their mini-camp was foreshadowing, as they released him and veteran non-import receiver Kamau Peterson. Peterson as I recall, mainly seemed to drop catchable balls when he played with Hamilton. So that's Zabransky and Trafalis as former backup quarterbacks floating around the CFL in a big game of musical chairs. I can't see the Ticats being interested in Zabransky.

CFL 2010 Attendance, Best Road Drawing Teams

Note this post has the new numbers for 2011.

So I already looked at the home attendance records for the 2010 season, but for quick reference, here's the average home attendance for each team in the CFL:

Edmonton 35025

Calgary 30715

Saskatchewan 30048

Winnipeg 26083

Montreal 25012

BC 24327

Hamilton 23890

Toronto 22069

Obviously that ranking is interesting, but what's also interesting is which team is the best road draw in the CFL (probably someone has already done this, but I'm posting it anyways). For the road game attendances of one team, subtract the average home attendance of the host team from the game's attendance, total them up and divide by the number of road games (9). This year's list was surprising apart from the obvious leader:

Saskatchewan 3506.5

Hamilton 122.21

Toronto -47.296

Calgary -313.75

Montreal -469.54

Winnipeg -1073.9

BC -1385.9

Edmonton -1558.7

Shockingly, the Hamilton Ticats were second overall and the only team besides the Saskatchewan Roughriders to post a positive average number. How did Hamilton become Canada's team? Mainly by having the first and second highest Argo attendances for 2010 (the Riders game was third). Obviously the Ticats are again a draw in Dead Ted's Dome (TM). Toronto managed to come third, mainly due to the Ticats getting more than 30,000 fans for Labour Day, way higher than the Ticat average attendance. How did Edmonton suck so hard as a road draw, besides sucking as a team in 2010? Low numbers in Toronto and Hamilton.

Also there appears to be a weak correlation between a team's record and road draw ranking, with Montreal being lower than expected and Saskatchewan and Hamilton drawing better than their rankings would warrant.

One issue with these calculations is that both Saskatchewan and Montreal sold out all their games, so the number is really based on just six or seven road games. So don't get too excited by these numbers.

Here is last year's numbers on the best road drawing teams (2009 season).

My other blog.

Khari Jones, New Ticats Offensive Coordinator

Perry Lefko has a story on the Sportsnet site about the Cats promoting quarterbacks coach Khari Jones to offensive co-ordinator. Can Jones be successful? Obviously only time will tell, but Jones does have an advantage in having a proven starter in Kevin Glenn going into 2011 and a decent receiving corps. Last year I could barely remember Mike Gibson as the offensive co-ordinator. Jones won't have that anonymity next year.

Kavis Reed is in as the Eskimos head coach. No real predictions, but the defence will probably improve. Will the team keep Ricky Ray is probably the biggest question.

CFL Predictions, Week 19, Part A

Calgary at Winnipeg,

Calgary being the best team in the league and Winnipeg the worst, one might think I'm picking Calgary. You're right.

Calgary 40, Winnipeg 13

Edmonton at Saskatchewan,

The Riders are favoured by 1.5 points at home, but Edmonton needs to win to get in the playoffs and keep alive the slim hope of playing for the Grey Cup at home. Edmonton has won three straight while the Riders have lost four. Not sure if Ray or Zabransky is starting for the Eskimos. I'll go with the hot team that needs to win.

Edmonton 28, Saskatchewan 24

CFL Predictions, Week 17, Part B

Winnipeg at Toronto,

This is a bit biased considering I'm writing this after the BC Calgary game last night, which pretty much screwed the Blue Bombers. Fulling expecting BC to lose, Winnipeg really needed this game, whereas Toronto not so much, especially with Hamilton winning this week as well. Knowing all this, I'll go with the Argos. They find weird ways to win this year, whereas the Bombers have massive skills in losing close games. Admittedly the Argos are still starting Cleo "the Party" Lemon, who may go down as the year long starting quarterback with the worst stats in CFL history. Steven Jyles isn't really that good either.

Toronto 22, Winnipeg 15

Saskatchewan at Edmonton,

This is a hard one. BC has won, putting pressure on Edmonton to step things up. Calgary losing makes this game more important for the Riders, trying to take the division for two years in a row. Saskatchewan has some injuries, Edmonton sucks. The Riders have some pride and aren't likely to go into this game half-assed like Alouettes into Ivor Wynne last night. I'll pick the Riders.

Saskatchewan 33, Edmonton 28

CFL Previews, Week 16, Part A

Hamilton at Toronto,

Both teams sport 7 and 7 records, but as I posted yesterday there's a big difference in points for and against, with the advantage for the Tigercats. The Cats are favoured by a slim 1.5 points away, with Hamilton having a 3 and 4 record away and the Argos having a 4 and 3 winning record at home. Both have one game winning streaks. Hamilton's secondary is still banged up, but the Argos are starting Cleo "the Party" Lemon, who one would be lying about if described as mediocre. The Cats already hold the Harold Ballard trophy after winning both the previous games against the Argos. The question boils down to, can the Cats front seven stop the Argo's running back Cory Boyd. The answer is yes. Plus after last week's Argo win powered by several trick plays, the Cats will be ready for them.

Hamilton 29, Argos 21

Edmonton at BC

Battle of the ass teams. The good thing about these two teams is that one of them has to win (barring a tie) which is to their advantage concerning the Bombers crossing over. Edmonton is 4 and 10 which is pretty sad and BC isn't much better at 5 and 10. The Eskimos are 1 and 6 on the road, whereas the Lions are 2 and 5 at home. The Lions last week were leading before losing in overtime whereas the Eskimos were thumped last week by Hamilton. BC should be a little better this week by releasing quarterback Casey Printers, but I don't have a lot of faith in Travis Lulay. I'll pick the Eskimos to tighten up the race in the West even though the Lions are favoured by 5.5 points.

Edmonton 29, BC 26

Barker Sack, Edmonton at Hamilton

Barker Sack, Edmonton at Hamilton
Originally uploaded by philinator

Here's a set of photos from the Edmonton game, including this photo of Ticat safety Dylan Barker about to sack Edmonton quarterback Ricky Ray. This photo of the boxes at Ivor Wynne shows TSN commentators Chris Cuthbert and Glen Suitor with their green screen behind them if you look closely enough.

Victory!

The Cats laid a relative 36 to 11 beating on the below mediocre Edmonton Eskimos last night, avenging their close loss last week. Probably the big difference this week was the secondary, with Edmonton only passing for 224 yards with two picks. The Eskimos also only rushed for 35 yards.

Glenn had a decent night, going 22 for 32 for 339 yards with 3 TD passes and no interceptions. Cobb had 49 yards on 16 carries with a TD, which is pretty poor average-wise. Cobb already has 980 yards, which seems strange because he's perceived to have had a bad season. Bruce had 142 yards on six catches with a TD, putting him at 1237 for the season and pending the rest of the games this weekend, the league lead. Stala had seven catches for 92 yards with a TD, putting him at 853 yards for the season, which looks good for cresting the 1000 yard plateau. Mann caught four passes for 75 yards and Schmidt caught a single pass for a yard. Way to go.

Bo Smith had eight tackles to lead the team. Maybe he's not as sucky as people thought.

Sad to see only 20,791 in the crowd last night, but Edmonton is not a particularly great draw and the Cats now seem to draw better in the summer. Thankfully it wasn't raining. The Cats should still be ahead of last year's total.

CFL Previews, Week 11, Part B

Winnipeg at Toronto,

The Argos are favoured by a mere one point at home where they are three and one. Winnipeg is zero and five on the road, so the Argos should have an advantage. The Argos offensive line is beat up with Zeyl and maybe Gagne-Marcoux out this week. Not sure if Boyd is out this week or not. Belli appears to be out too, but with the signing of Ricky Foley that should improve the line and certainly help out with the ratio. Winnipeg is still missing Pierce, but Jyles isn't too bad. Winnipeg has a one game winning streak and Toronto a three game losing streak, so I'll go with momentum.

Winnipeg 29, Toronto 26

Edmonton at Montreal,

Montreal is favoured at home by a massive 13 points, which may be the biggest spread this year. Calvillo is back, the Alouettes are four and one at home, the Eskimos winless on the road and Edmonton just a bad team. Pretty easy to go with Montreal

Montreal 37, Edmonton 15

CFL Previews, Week 11, Part A

I'm writing this as the Calgary Edmonton game has already started, but I emailed myself my picks earlier, so there is no cheating. Of course, I could have sent myself a bunch of emails and just pick the appropriate one to show, so you'll just have to accept my honesty.

Calgary at Edmonton,
Bad, bad team versus best team, although bad team is at home. I'm picking Calgary, although closer this week.
Calgary 30, Edmonton 21

Montreal at Hamilton,
Obviously the main fact here is that Anthony Calvillo is not starting, instead Adrian McPherson, fresh off the nine game injured list. Monteal is coming off a loss, Hamilton has won four straight. The Ticats are favoured by 3.5 at home which isn't that much considering no Calvillo. After seeing the beating BC gave Montreal last week, I have to go with the Cats. Hamilton has a decent front four, which should make things difficult for McPherson, especially since he's wearing a brace. Perhaps big things for Garrett McIntyre.
Hamilton 35, Montreal 25

CFL Previews, Week 10, Part B

Toronto at Hamilton,
Hamilton is favoured by a only four points at home, indicated the teams are quite closely matched. The Ticats have a three game winning streak while the Argos have lost one. The Cats are 2 and 1 at home, while the Argos are even on the road. In their last meeting, neither offense could get on track and the Argos lost primarily due to penalties (at least in my opinion).

When the teams are close, two factors can be useful in predicting a CFL game. First, who has the better quarterback? Hamilton obviously. Second who has the better Canadians? The Ticats have an edge here, starting eight versus the Argos seven, which shows more depth. Plus Argo non-import tackle Van Zeyl may be injured this week, putting even more pressure on the Argos to come up with a suitable replacement or rejig the ratio. The Argos do have arguably the best defence in the league, so anything can happen, especially in a close game.
Hamilton 25, Toronto 23

Edmonton at Calgary,
The Eskimos win last week and are rewarded with being 12.5 point underdogs on the road, one of the higher point spreads of the year. The Stamps are perfect at home and the Eskimos have no wins on the road. Calgary also has a five game winning streak. Various injuries on both sides, but the Eskimos seem more depleted, especially with regards to receivers (Stamps and Peterson). I could do some more analysis, but Edmonton is simply a bad team this year.
Calgary 42, Edmonton 25

The Star's Damien Cox had an article about Ticat former safety Sandy Beveridge quitting the team to become a firefighter. As a Hamilton taxpayer, if there's 2000 applications for 14 spots, maybe we are paying firefighters too much, where that money could be put to better uses like lowering business taxes. Here's another article from the Star on the Labour Day game, complete with Otis Floyd quotes.

Here's a Globe article on some of the recent NFL cuts pertinent to the CFL, including receiver and Hamilton draft pick Samuel Giguerre who had been with Indianapolis. Will he ever play for Hamilton?