2013 CFL Week 6 Predictions.

Hamilton at Edmonton
Battle of the 1 and 4 teams. Edmonton won the first encounter in Guelph. I probably should bet on the Esks at home, however I think that the Burris will probably have a good game and the defense won't do too badly. That may be a bit of bias, but the team is bad, not completely bad. Still not having Fantuz back really hurts.
Tiger-Cats 29 Eskimos 22

Winnipeg at BC
BC lost pretty badly to Toronto in Toronto, so I'm sure they'll want to avenge that lose. The Lions are significantly better at home than on the road in history. The Bombers have at least moved on from Buck Pierce to Goltz which is something. He'll have a hard time outgunning Lulay though.
Lions 35 Bombers 21

CFL Predictions 2012 Week 6

Montreal at Winnipeg
Battle of the losing record teams! I assume the Bombers are going with Brink at quarterback, but I don't know that for sure. The Alouettes will obviously go with Calvillo who is a little beat up of late. Montreal is favoured by two on the road, which is basically damning with faint praise. Basically one team has a good offense and a bad defence and vice versa for the other. When that's the case, I'll go with the home team.
Bombers 24 Alouettes 23

BC at Toronto
The Argos now have a competent offense with Ricky Ray at the controls. Certainly not awe inspiring, but Ray is quite capable of burning a secondary if given a chance. The Lions have a ton of talent but have been inconsistent so far this year. Coming off a solid victory last week the Lions are favoured by a mere field goal on the road. I'm not sure if the Argos can contain the Lion offense enough to get by with their offense. Lions.
Lions 31 Team Suck 28

Yet More Winnipeg Blue Bomber Finance Analysis

The CP article I linked to in my previous post on the Bombers' finances was rather scant in terms of information. There's another version of the article that has a lot more information about how Winnipeg, despite a sucky season went from a loss to a profit in 2010.

The main factor is $981,950 in severance costs, including $160,000 to the fan reviled Mike Kelly, plus varous assistants, former coach Doug Berry, plus some others. For a CFL team, signing a new coach to a three year deal and having him tank the first year is problematic, because replacing him means paying two coaching salaries for several years. However if the fans demand the coach's head, not firing him could potentially lose the team more money if the fans stay away. With player salaries closely controlled, coaching salaries, especially severances can be considerably more variable. Luckily the Bomber fans aren't demanding current coach Paul LaPolice's head after a 4 and 14 season last year, but if there's more of the same this year, what happens.

One other interesting piece of information in the article was that CFL revenue paid to the Bombers increased by $122,000. It would be interesting to find the actual total number paid to the teams for 2010, but an increase is still positive.

Staying with the Bombers, season ticket sales are already past 16,000, which is impressive for a team that was the worst in the CFL in 2010. The new stadium is probably helping out some what, plus some delusion on the part of Bomber fans that Buck Pierce will stay healthy. Interestingly I've heard no word on how Ticat sales are doing this year. If they were going fantastic, one might have expected to hear something from the Cats.

There's probably some bitterness about the stadium debacle that could take more than a year to subside. Likely the fans that buy the most tickets will keep buying, but some tickets to some angry casual fans might not get sold. Plus the fact with the Moncton game you're only getting eight home games and forced to buy a potential playoff game could also be causing some problems.

2010 Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the Black

I haven't gotten around to this story about the Bombers posting a profit of slightly over $400,000 after going a miserable 4 and 14 in 2010. According to the article, the Bombers lost over $1.2 million after going 7 and 11. What isn't stated is that the Bombers head coach in 2009 was the much loathed and much quoted Mike Kelly. Likely Bomber fans prior to the start of the 2010 season were ecstatic over the removal of Kelly and loaded up on season tickets in anticipation of a better season with Paul LaPolice at the helm.

Didn't work out that way, but at least the Bombers made a decent amount of money for such a crappy season. It probably helped the Bombers weren't bad out of the gate before Buck Pierce got injured (remember those last five words for 2011) ending up with just over 26,000 average attendance.

Here's a Winnipeg Free Press article about the Bombers' finances including news that season ticket sales are ahead by three weeks from last year (although I can't really see much optimism for next year) and increased corporate interest to boot. The Bomber loan for their new stadium seems pretty ugly, although a Grey Cup soon in the new stadium should be pretty profitable.

Argos Trade With Bombers for Steven Jyles

News that the Argos have tried to rectify their Cleo Lemon quarterbacking problem by trading their first round pick (fourth overall) in the upcoming 2011 CFL draft to Winnipeg, plus a conditional pick for quarterback Steven Jyles (28, 6'1", 202 pounds). Jyles, who played at the august institution of higher learning, the Universty of Louisiana at Monroe, was 196 for 381 last year passing (61.6). Jyles threw last year for 19 TDs versus 7 picks and a 100.9 passer rating. Jyles also rushed 65 times for 452 yards for a respectable 7.0 yard average.

Winnipeg was still terrible last year with Jyles, which leaves questions for both teams. Is Jyles better than Cleo Lemon? Likely, although he's probably not that much better. Is Toronto smart trading away first round picks for immediate relief? Probably not. Is Winnipeg banking on one of the most fragile players ever to play in the CFL in quarterback Buck Pierce? Apparently so, although the fourth overall pick won't hurt. We'll see how this pans out and if Cleo "the Party" Lemon makes it out of Toronto's training camp.

CFL 2010 Attendance, Best Road Drawing Teams

Note this post has the new numbers for 2011.

So I already looked at the home attendance records for the 2010 season, but for quick reference, here's the average home attendance for each team in the CFL:

Edmonton 35025

Calgary 30715

Saskatchewan 30048

Winnipeg 26083

Montreal 25012

BC 24327

Hamilton 23890

Toronto 22069

Obviously that ranking is interesting, but what's also interesting is which team is the best road draw in the CFL (probably someone has already done this, but I'm posting it anyways). For the road game attendances of one team, subtract the average home attendance of the host team from the game's attendance, total them up and divide by the number of road games (9). This year's list was surprising apart from the obvious leader:

Saskatchewan 3506.5

Hamilton 122.21

Toronto -47.296

Calgary -313.75

Montreal -469.54

Winnipeg -1073.9

BC -1385.9

Edmonton -1558.7

Shockingly, the Hamilton Ticats were second overall and the only team besides the Saskatchewan Roughriders to post a positive average number. How did Hamilton become Canada's team? Mainly by having the first and second highest Argo attendances for 2010 (the Riders game was third). Obviously the Ticats are again a draw in Dead Ted's Dome (TM). Toronto managed to come third, mainly due to the Ticats getting more than 30,000 fans for Labour Day, way higher than the Ticat average attendance. How did Edmonton suck so hard as a road draw, besides sucking as a team in 2010? Low numbers in Toronto and Hamilton.

Also there appears to be a weak correlation between a team's record and road draw ranking, with Montreal being lower than expected and Saskatchewan and Hamilton drawing better than their rankings would warrant.

One issue with these calculations is that both Saskatchewan and Montreal sold out all their games, so the number is really based on just six or seven road games. So don't get too excited by these numbers.

Here is last year's numbers on the best road drawing teams (2009 season).

My other blog.

CFL East All-Star Selections

I suppose I should say something about the CFL East all-star selections. Nine Alouettes being selected obviously makes sense. Seven Argos is a bit dubious, but Toronto was strong on defence and special teams and sucked on offense, so some of the defensive and special teams players making does make a certain amount of sense. Strange that the Ticats only had four players, Bruce, Stala, Hage and Knowlton. Especially only one defensive player making the squad, considering the Cats ended up with a decent defence by the end of the season.

But what it is really weird is Winnipeg a 4 and 14 team having seven players. I certainly don't remember the Cats having many all-stars during their 3 and 13 seasons. In a four team division you're going to see some weirdness I guess. Plus a lot of it is based on racking up stats by playing your position the entire season.

Here's a CBC article on the history of Argo Ticat playoff football.

Here's a TSN article singing the praises of Ticat receiver Chris Bauman who ended the regular season with 298 yards and 3 TDs. Hopefully he has a good post-season.

Finally looks like Richie Hall is out as the Edmonton Eskimos coach. If he had won last week to get in the playoffs but then lost against the Riders on Sunday, would he still have a job? Hard to say. Edmonton was pretty mediocre considering they had a bona fide starting quarterback, which is a lot more than the Argos had and they managed to eke out nine wins.

CFL Predictions, Week 19, Part A

Calgary at Winnipeg,

Calgary being the best team in the league and Winnipeg the worst, one might think I'm picking Calgary. You're right.

Calgary 40, Winnipeg 13

Edmonton at Saskatchewan,

The Riders are favoured by 1.5 points at home, but Edmonton needs to win to get in the playoffs and keep alive the slim hope of playing for the Grey Cup at home. Edmonton has won three straight while the Riders have lost four. Not sure if Ray or Zabransky is starting for the Eskimos. I'll go with the hot team that needs to win.

Edmonton 28, Saskatchewan 24

CFL Power Rankings, Week 18

1. Calgary

After their dismantling of a hot Ticat team, with at least up until this game, a great defence, the Stampeders have to be considered the best team in the CFL. Especially considering the Hamilton game didn't really mean much.

2. Montreal

The game didn't mean much, but they managed to come from behind and beat the Argos in Hogtown. Still a last second victory over a Cleo "the Party" Lemon quarterbacked team isn't really saying a lot.

3. Hamilton

Sure they got spanked by Calgary, but the Cats are still relatively hot.

4. Saskatchewan

Losing again, to a BC team at home that needed to win. Still a good team, but definitely second tier now and whereas before they were pretty much a lock to win their home playoff date, things don't look so sure now.

5. Toronto

Had chances to beat the Alouettes at home and keep their home playoff spot alive. Somehow managed to be ahead until Cleo Lemon starts sucking. Bizarre how such a bad offence can still be 8 and 9.

6. BC

Beat a relatively good team in Saskatchewan. Still a mediocre team with a crappy home record.

7. Edmonton

Beat a bad Bomber team in overtime. Sure they control their own destiny, but if against BC this week I wouldn't bet on them.

8. Winnipeg

Worse than last year's Mike Kelly coached team. Ouch.

Ticats Lose Morencie off Practice Roster to Winnipeg

A bit of a strange story here from the Windsor Star, about Ticats offensive lineman Matt Morencie getting picked up off of the practice roster by Winnipeg. Sad to lose a young offensive lineman, although the Cats could have moved him to the active roster if they wanted to keep him bad enough. Did the bad behaviour at the Windsor Lancer game affect the Cats decision? Maybe, although Winnipeg being totally out of it gives them more roster flexibility for the last couple of games. Interesting that Morencie is a J.P. Metras award winner for best university offensive lineman in the CIS, but still only practice roster material.

CFL Predictions, Week 17, Part B

Winnipeg at Toronto,

This is a bit biased considering I'm writing this after the BC Calgary game last night, which pretty much screwed the Blue Bombers. Fulling expecting BC to lose, Winnipeg really needed this game, whereas Toronto not so much, especially with Hamilton winning this week as well. Knowing all this, I'll go with the Argos. They find weird ways to win this year, whereas the Bombers have massive skills in losing close games. Admittedly the Argos are still starting Cleo "the Party" Lemon, who may go down as the year long starting quarterback with the worst stats in CFL history. Steven Jyles isn't really that good either.

Toronto 22, Winnipeg 15

Saskatchewan at Edmonton,

This is a hard one. BC has won, putting pressure on Edmonton to step things up. Calgary losing makes this game more important for the Riders, trying to take the division for two years in a row. Saskatchewan has some injuries, Edmonton sucks. The Riders have some pride and aren't likely to go into this game half-assed like Alouettes into Ivor Wynne last night. I'll pick the Riders.

Saskatchewan 33, Edmonton 28

CFL Predictions, Week 15, Part B

Calgary at Montreal,

Montreal is favoured by 3.5 points at home in the premier matchup in the CFL this week, which means the odds guys think Calgary is the better overall team. I think this is a fairly safe assumption, although Calgary only has one more win this year. The Alouettes are 5 and 1 at home, while the Stamps are an excellent 4 and 2 on the road. The Alouettes are still a great team, but I'm going to go with Henry Burris' better mobility (and not his lingerie choices) compared to Anthony Calvillo.

Calgary 33, Montreal 28

BC at Winnipeg,

This is pretty much a must win game for the Bombers if they have any hope of beating out BC for the crossover. Considering Winnipeg is two wins behind and has to have more points than BC to cross over, it isn't likely even if they do win. BC is 3 and 3 on the road and Winnipeg is 3 and 3 at home. BC has won the last two games while the Bombers have lost three in a row. I'm going to go out on a little bit of a limb and say the Bombers win this one. They're kind of due and they are OK at home. The Lions I just don't trust this season. Sadly the Bombers look unlikely to beat their record with Mike Kelly last year.

CFL Previews, Week 11, Part B

Winnipeg at Toronto,

The Argos are favoured by a mere one point at home where they are three and one. Winnipeg is zero and five on the road, so the Argos should have an advantage. The Argos offensive line is beat up with Zeyl and maybe Gagne-Marcoux out this week. Not sure if Boyd is out this week or not. Belli appears to be out too, but with the signing of Ricky Foley that should improve the line and certainly help out with the ratio. Winnipeg is still missing Pierce, but Jyles isn't too bad. Winnipeg has a one game winning streak and Toronto a three game losing streak, so I'll go with momentum.

Winnipeg 29, Toronto 26

Edmonton at Montreal,

Montreal is favoured at home by a massive 13 points, which may be the biggest spread this year. Calvillo is back, the Alouettes are four and one at home, the Eskimos winless on the road and Edmonton just a bad team. Pretty easy to go with Montreal

Montreal 37, Edmonton 15

Lumsden to Play for Bombers?

There's an article in the National Post about Buck Pierce getting injured, yet again. No surprise there, but at the end of the article it mentions the Bombers interest in another oft injured player, Jesse Lumsden. I predicted that Lumsden would probably not be signed until midway through the campaign. Whether he could last another nine games is another question, that I would be inclined to answer no.

The fact that Calvillo is supposedly not playing this Saturday in Hamilton is welcome news. Which ever backup is playing, hopefully the Ticats can mangle the Alouettes like BC eventually did last Friday. People often point out the success of Montreal GM Jim Popp, but Tigercatatonia wonders how much of that success is due to having Calvillo for a large chunk of those years in Montreal, as opposed to say Jason Maas or Casey Printers.

CFL Power Rankings, Week 9, Part A

BC at Montreal,
Montreal is favoured by a rather large 10.5 points at home against BC, despite having to go with backup quarterback Chris Leak due to Anthony Calvillo falling on a football. Of course BC is the worst team in the league and Montreal is 4 and 0 at home so that sounds about right.

I guess Printers is starting this game, but Travis Lulay isn't much better. I suppose the question can BC put enough pressure on Leak to take advantage of his lack of experience. Given enough opportunities (ie many two and outs by the Alouettes) Printers could end up doing well, but Montreal will probably end up feeding the ball to Avon Cobourne (providing he is healthy this week). This should give Montreal enough time of possession for the rest of the team to overpower the lowly Lions. Probably not much scoring here, except maybe off turnovers.
Montreal 23, BC 20

Winnipeg at Saskatchewan,
The Banjo Bowl. Saskatchewan is perfect at home this year and Winnipeg has lost every game on the road. So the Riders being favoured by 9.5 points isn't much of a surprise. Buck "the Glassman" Pierce looks to be injured yet again, although backup Steven Jyles doesn't seem that much worse. The Riders sucked last week against Edmonton so they should come out fired up at home. Can't really say too much positive about the Bombers other than they are no longer coached by Mike Kelly.
Saskatchewan 40, Winnpeg 27

CFL Previews, Week 8

Winnipeg at Montreal,
So Montreal is 11.5 point favourites at home, one of the bigger spreads this year in the CFL. Can't really say much in favour of the Bombers in this one, especially after they got their asses handed to them at home last week by the Ticats. I'm even doubtful if they will cover. Montreal is missing running back Avon Cobourne which should help Winnipeg a bit, but Pierce seems to be out with knee injuries. Montreal isn't the team that went 15 and 3 last year, but they are still pretty good. No need to overanalyze this one.
Alouettes 45, Winnipeg 28

Hamilton at Toronto,
Finally a meaningful midseason game between these two teams. Both teams looked good last week although one would have to give the edge to the Argos for having the better opponent. Toronto has a great defence, an awesome running game and a quarterback who does just enough to allow the Argonauts to win in Cleo "the Party" Lemon. Questions are can the Cats stop Boyd enough to force Lemon to pass? Glenn has been pretty good of late, can the Argos slow him down? This one could come down to special teams. The Argos are favoured by 2.5 at home, which isn't much considering their respective records. Not making a homer pick, I'll take the Argos by two points.
Argos 25, Ticats 23

CFL Previews, Week 7, Part A

BC at Saskatchewan,
The start of the second third of the season. Over the first third BC has proven they suck. Now they're going with Jarious Jackson as the starter, who historically has been better coming off the bench. Riders, easy. They aren't favoured by 8.5 points for nothing.
Sasky 41, BC 29
Hamilton at Winnipeg
A tougher one. Winnipeg is favoured by 4.5 currently, which strikes me as a tad high by a point or two. Admittedly the Peg kept it close last week against Hamilton in Hamilton so who knows what they could do at home. The Bombers have gotten rid of kicker Serna, which should help in the intermediate term, but I'm not so sure what happens for the next game. Bruce'a health seems a bit questionable, although I'm sure he'll play. I'll go against the grain and pick the Ticats by one. A bit of a homer pick, but Winnipeg fundamentally is just not a good team.
Hamilton 28, Winnipeg 26

Last Game

I haven't commented on last game yet, although I have been meaning too. A good result and for once the Cats were able to stop a team driving at the end, albeit that did allow them to get to the three yard line. Kudos to McIntyre for the stop at the end.

Kudos also to Bruce for almost getting 200 yards receiving in back to back games. I wonder if anyone has ever done that? Maybe Stegall or Simon or some long forgotten hero. Bruce now leads the league in receiving yards and receptions. Some nice play by Stala, picking up 59 yards and a TD. Although him getting the top Canadian award must have meant Canadians had a weak week this week.

Jyles did a decent job, going 24 for 35 for 349 yards and two TDs. Glenn was not quite as good going 24 for 41 for 371 yards with 3 TDs and a pick.

DeAngelis did excellently, whereas Serna sucked and apparently has been booted from the Bombers. The swirling winds of Ivor Wynne claim another victim.

Cobb had kind of a meh game with only 47 yards on 11 attempts. The Cats are basically a pass first team now so that's probably to be expected from now on.

If the Cats can win in Winnipeg this week, that sets up a potential match to get to 500 against the Argos. I'm not sure if the Cats can pull off two wins in a row against the Bombers, but Winnipeg is pretty mediocre this year. They could end up with fewer wins than last year with Mike Kelly, which is perverse.

Nice to see the 1972 Grey Cup team being honoured. I now know what Tommy Joe Coffey looks like. Good to see all the old players. One interesting fact about Coffey is that he is a winner of the Dave Dryburgh Memorial Trophy, for the top scorer in the Western division. According to the wikipedia entry, there is no Eastern equivalent. More CFL weirdness for you.

Ticat Game Day, Winnipeg Edition and West Harbour Rally

Just back from the West Harbour rally. Good speeches and a decent turnout including a few Box J Boys, maybe 400 in my estimation, but I have no experience at all with estimating these things. Of note, Bob Bratina revealed a West Harbour jersey (so I guess I can now vote for Bratina again) and Fred Eisenberger said the feds may now be disavowing their decision against the West Harbour. Hard to keep track of these things, although the Mayor wisely said he wanted to see it in writing.

On to the lineup. Offensive line the same as last week, Gauthier and import Belton at the tackles, Dyakowski and Rottier at guard and Hage at centre.

Mann and Bruce are the wideouts, with McDaniel and non-import Stala as the slots. Bauman is now listed below Matt Carter as a backup receiver. Ouch.

Glenn is the quarterback, with Cobb as the running back and non-import Brown as the fullback.

For the defensive line, things stay the same, Hickman and Long as the ends and Bolden and McIntyre as the defensive tackles.

Linebackers are the same, Knowlton, Floyd and Johnson.

Bradley is back at corner, with Tisdale. Dennis and Shivers are the defensive backs. Non-import Barker is the safety.

Import Wilbur is the new punter.

For Winnipeg I had to use their PDF and it loaded in kinda screwy so I might get the names a bit off.

Winnipeg goes with two import offensive tackles, Douglas and Butler. The guards are LaBatte and Morley with Khan as the centre.

Bowman and non-import Hargreaves are the wide receivers. Edwards and Davis are the slots. Pierce is listing as starting, but I don't know what's up with that. Reid is the running back and non-import Oosterhus is the fullback.

Hunt and Willis are the starting defensive ends, with non-import Brown and Smith inside.

Smith, Lobendahn and Hicks are the linebackers.

Johnson and Glover are the corners. Stewart and Suber? are the halfbacks. Brown is the non-import safety.

Serna kicks and Renaud is the punter, I think.

CFL Predictions: Week 6, Part B

Winnipeg at Hamilton,
Hamilton is favoured by only three at home, which is kind of sad, but hey, when you're one and four you don't get a lot of respect. It's not like the Cats have a 4 and 2 record with league's leading rusher. No sir the 2010 Ticats are no Argonauts. That said, they are playing the Bombers who are without Buck "the Glassman" Pierce at home. Crap versus crap. Cats hammer Winnipeg again at home.
Ticats 35, Bombers 19

Calgary at BC,
Calgary is favoured by a measly 2.5 points away. Why? One team is 4 and 1 and the other is 1 and 4. One team has Casey Printers on the roster and one doesn't. One team has lost four straight. Seems like a pretty easy choice, but strange things have happened in the CFL before. Like Horn Chen.
Calgary 41, BC 16