The Revenge of Bill James

So the Ticats are 1 and 3 after last night's loss and it is guaranteed the Ticats will be heavy underdogs next week in Saskatchewan. Thus the Cats could easily be 1 and 4 at the end of next week. What happened to last year's 9 and 9 season? What happened to the prognostications about a great team this year? Here's what I posted in a power rankings just before the season began:

"Baseball statistician Bill James has stated that whenever a baseball team outperforms one year compared to the previous season, inevitably the team has a dropoff the next season. The Ticats went 9 and 9 last year after back to back 3 and 13 seasons, but with a solid returning team the Cats have an excellent chance to go over 500, for the first time in a while."

Prescient? Prior to last season's 500 year the Cats had season of 5 and 13, 4 and 14, 3 and 15, and 3 and 15. That's a pretty bad run so perhaps last season was a bit of an aberration. If the Cats lose in Riderville next week, the Cats would have to go 8 and 5 down the stretch to equal last year's record. Not impossible, but certainly not easy either. At this point, 7 and 11 or 8 and 10 is a more achievable goal.

About last night's game, I ended up going to be early in the second half due to being in Europe for work. I hoped when I got up the Cats might have pulled one out but sadly that did not happen. Certainly the Cats were in this game for long stretches and the defence did an admirable job at keeping the Alouettes to only field goals before breaking down.

Statwise Glenn had a pretty mediocre game, completing half of his passes, 16 for 32 for 201 yards and no TDs or picks. Calvillo on the other hand had a decent game going 28 for 38 for 309 yards and 2 TDs, getting sacked three times.

Stala again had a decent game with 84 yards on six catches. There's a possibility of a 1000 yard season if he keeps it up. McDaniel was also good with 5 catches for 75 yards. Surprisingly Cobb had 64 yards receiving on five catches. He certainly didn't get much on the ground.

For me the two critical parts of the game were the inability of the Cats to punch it through from the 1 yard line in the first half and Deangelis' missed field goal from a relatively short distance. Playing ahead especially against Montreal can change the complexion of the game completely and the Cats needed that in a tough road game.